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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY3 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-27 10:47 UTC
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000 ACUS03 KWNS 271047 SWODY3 SPC AC 271023 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 291200-301200 NO SLGT RISK AREAS FCST. ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER CA. IN BETWEEN...A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/S TX AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT A BELT OF 50-70 KT WLYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...RICH MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT PLAINS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NWD FROM TX/LA TO OK/AR DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS REACHING MO/IA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE RED RIVER AREA IS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPED. THE PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE GREATER FARTHER N IN THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE RED RIVER AREA GIVEN A FOCUS FOR INITIATION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM INITIATION PRECLUDES MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON.. 04/27/02
132 ACUS03 KWNS 271047 SWODY3 SPC AC 271023 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 291200-301200 NO SLGT RISK AREAS FCST. ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER CA. IN BETWEEN...A BROAD/FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/S TX AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA WILL SUPPORT A BELT OF 50-70 KT WLYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...RICH MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT PLAINS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NWD FROM TX/LA TO OK/AR DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS REACHING MO/IA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE WEST...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER. THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE RED RIVER AREA IS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND EFFECTIVELY CAPPED. THE PROBABILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE GREATER FARTHER N IN THE DEVELOPING WAA REGIME LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED. SUPERCELLS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE RED RIVER AREA GIVEN A FOCUS FOR INITIATION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME...THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM INITIATION PRECLUDES MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON.. 04/27/02