National Weather Service Raw Text Product

511 
ACUS1 KMKC 241247
SWODY1
MKC AC 241244

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N GFL 20 W NEL 45 WNW ECG 50 NE CAE 30 W CLT 30 ENE EKN
30 NW ROC 30 NW ART 30 WSW SLK 10 N GFL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW OTH 50 NNE MFR
25 SSW 4LW 25 NNW RNO 35 NE MER 35 W PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MFE 15 ESE ALI
35 N PSX 25 ENE BPT 20 NNE LFT MCB 40 WSW TCL 50 WNW CHA
45 ENE LEX 50 W ERI ...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 WSW BHB.

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / LOWER OH
/ MS VALLEY REGION.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...NOW LYING FROM OH
SSWWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AND SHOULD REACH THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT NWD INTO NY / PA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.  HOWEVER...
MOIST AIRMASS ALOFT INDICATED BY LATEST IR / WV LOOPS SUGGESTS WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING /
DESTABILIZATION -- WITH ONLY 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-MIXED CAPE
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  NONETHELESS...STRENGTH OF UVV
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AHEAD OF
STRENGTHENING UPPER SYSTEM...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND A FEW
SUPERCELLS.  MOST OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR
CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.  A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SELY.  OVERNIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.

..GOSS.. 09/24/01