National Weather Service Raw Text Product

161 
ACUS1 KMKC 240046
SWODY1
MKC AC 240044

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE TOL 40 NW CLE 10 ENE CLE 30 S CMH 30 N LOZ 20 W CSV
20 ESE MKL 20 ENE DYR 25 WNW BWG 30 W SDF 30 ESE BMG 40 SE FWA
15 E TOL 15 ENE TOL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FHU
65 SSW SOW 40 E SOW 35 ESE ONM 25 NNE CNM 30 SSW MAF 40 NNE SJT
60 N HOT 35 NE EVV 10 S ARB 40 NNE CGX 35 SE OSH ANJ ...CONT...
60 NNW ROC DUJ 15 NW BLF 20 NE LYH 25 SE ORF.


BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS PERSISTING AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL
AR.  EVENING SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY.  THOUGH
CAPES WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER DARK...STRENGTH OF UVV/S AND
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO OH
...CENTRAL KY AND PARTS OF TN FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STRONGEST FROM KY INTO OH...WHERE 40-50 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN.  THOUGH NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LINEAR CONVECTION WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

FARTHER SSWWD ALONG THE FRONT...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
AR AND PARTS OF NERN TX THROUGH THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS RATHER WEAK AND ACTIVITY HAS YET TO INTENSIFY EARLY
THIS EVENING.  THEREFORE...MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED.

..EVANS.. 09/24/01