National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
TTAA00 KNHC 221445
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON JUN 22 1998

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB
RESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WELL
FORMED CIRCULATION WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KTS.

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS BEING SHEARED BY NORTHEAST
UPPER LEVEL WINDS YESTERDAY MOVED RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE EVENING AND NOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CREATING GOOD
OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT
IS ALSO FAVORABLE.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO
A HURRICANE IN 48 HRS BECAUSE OF LOW VALUES OF FORECASTED VERTICAL
SHEAR AND VERY WARM SST ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK.  THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR THIS DEPRESSION TO BE NAMED IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND A HURRICANE IN APPROXIMATELY TWO DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 300/09.  ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED AT THE LATER
FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DIRECTION OF THE
FORECASTS BUT IS A COMPROMISE IN THE DIFFERENT SPEEDS.

JARVINEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL     22/1500Z 10.1N  96.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 10.8N  97.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N  99.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.2N 101.1W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 103.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.7N 107.5W    75 KTS