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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1998-06-11 15:00 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 111445 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUN 11 1998 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT WELL- DEFINED...IS NOW SUFFICIENTLY INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY COOLER SST LATER IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZATION OF A SPURIOUS VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS VORTEX MAY BE PRODUCING A LEFTWARD BIAS IN THE MODEL FORECASTS...MOST OF WHICH RELY ON THE AVIATION MODEL FIELDS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. MEANWHILE NOGAPS SEEMS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC INITIALIZATION AND SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS AND LEANS TOWARD THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. GUINEY/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.7N8 105.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 106.7W 35 KTS 24HR VT 12/1200Z 13.8N 108.8W 45 KTS 36HR VT 13/0000Z 14.5N 111.4W 55 KTS 48HR VT 13/1200Z 15.5N 114.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 14/1200Z 17.0N 119.0W 60 KTS
335 WTPZ41 KNHC 111445 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUN 11 1998 THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT WELL- DEFINED...IS NOW SUFFICIENTLY INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY COOLER SST LATER IN THE PERIOD. SATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZATION OF A SPURIOUS VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS VORTEX MAY BE PRODUCING A LEFTWARD BIAS IN THE MODEL FORECASTS...MOST OF WHICH RELY ON THE AVIATION MODEL FIELDS IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. MEANWHILE NOGAPS SEEMS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC INITIALIZATION AND SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS APPEARS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS AND LEANS TOWARD THE NOGAPS SOLUTION. GUINEY/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 12.7N 105.0W 30 KTS 12HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 106.7W 35 KTS 24HR VT 12/1200Z 13.8N 108.8W 45 KTS 36HR VT 13/0000Z 14.5N 111.4W 55 KTS 48HR VT 13/1200Z 15.5N 114.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 14/1200Z 17.0N 119.0W 60 KTS