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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-23 02:34 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 230234 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON SEP 22 1997 CLOUD TOPS OF THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING NORAS EYE HAVE WARMED FURTHER...SO THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY WEAKENED A BIT MORE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON...100 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...NOT MUCH FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL NORA INTERACTS WITH LAND AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...WHEN NORA REACHES HIGHER LATITUDES. MOTION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 7 KNOTS. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 125W. THE LATEST...18Z...RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTS THIS SYSTEM TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE NORA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT...AND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECAST MODELS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND THE GFDL MODEL TRACKS...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE LATTER MODEL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. NORA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 19.6N 112.5W 100 KTS 12HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 113.0W 100 KTS 24HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 113.2W 100 KTS 36HR VT 24/1200Z 24.0N 113.3W 95 KTS 48HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 113.3W 80 KTS 72HR VT .26/0000Z 33.0N 113.0W 45 KTS...INLAND