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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-19 20:30 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 192030 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 1997 NOT MUCH FOUND TO CHANGE IN THIS ADVISORY. NORA IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...PERHAPS INCHING TOWARD THE NW OR WNW. THERE REMAINS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT 85 KT. THE 12Z AVN PROVIDES A SOLUTION THAT IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...BUT IT AGAIN STARTS FROM A BAD INITIALIZATION NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HENCE...THE SHORT-TERM AVN FORECAST WILL BE IGNORED. IN THE LONG-TERM...IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THE RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY WILL END UP RESULTING IN A SERIES OF GOOD FORECASTS OR BAD FORECASTS FROM THE MODEL. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION. SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER PACE. THE GFDL TRACK GOES MORE TO THE WEST AT FIRST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 14.5N 104.2W 85 KTS 12HR VT 20/0600Z 15.0N 104.6W 80 KTS 24HR VT 20/1800Z 15.7N 105.1W 85 KTS 36HR VT 21/0600Z 16.4N 105.6W 90 ^KTS 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.3N 106.2W 90 KTS 72HR VT 22/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W 90 KTS