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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP1 Product Timestamp: 1997-09-19 02:31 UTC
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000 TTAA00 KNHC 190231 HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 18 1997 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED EYE. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REFLECT THIS BUT PROBABLY IS A SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENT. INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND HAS ESTABLISHED AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH...LAST NIGHT...SEEMED TO BE IMPEDING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE. NORA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 18 HOURS. THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS WERE INITIALIZED WITH 280/02. THEY CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MALDONADO. JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.3N 104.0W 90 KTS 12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.4N 104.2W 95 KTS 24HR VT 20/0000Z 14.6N 104.8W 100 KTS 36HR VT 20/1200Z 15.3N 105.7W 105 KTS 48HR VT 21/0000Z 16.2N 107.1W 110 KTS 72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W 110 KTS