National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
ACUS1 KMKC 280616
MKC AC 280700

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 281200 - 291200Z

REF WW 782...VALID UNTIL 0800Z.
REF WW 783...VALID UNTIL 1000Z.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACRS PORTIONS OF
ERN NY/ERN PA/NRN NJ/CT/RI/MA/VT/NH/AND A LARGE PART OF ME. THE MDT
RISK AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 ENE NEL 35 SW ABE 15 SSW IPT
SYR 25 NW PBG ...CONT...50 NNW 3B1 20 N HUL.

SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE
RGT OF A LN FM ORF 25 E TRI 35 SSE PAH 40 WNW PNC 4LJ 25 SSE DEN
15 NW CYS 25 W BFF 25 E SNY MCK 15 NNE CNK 10 N STJ BMI DTW MTC.

TSTMS MAY APCH SVR LIMITS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 30 S TWF
25 S BOI 45 NE BKE 35 NE S80 3DU 35 E DLN 50 SSW JAC 35 SW MLD
30 S TWF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 20 ESE IPL LAS 20 NNW ELY
35 W OWY 4LW MFR 10 W SLE 15 NE BLI ...CONT...25 NE CTB 40 NNE BIL
40 E 81V 30 SE 9V9 15 NW ALO SSM ...CONT...LRD 50 NW VCT
45 ENE ACT 45 E SPS 30 W CDS 35 SW CVS 50 WNW MRF.

SHRTWV TAKING ON NEGATIVE TILT ATTM OVER THE WRN GRTLKS IS PROGD TO
SWEEP ACRS THE ERN GRTLKS AND THE NERN U.S. DURING THE FCST PERIOD.
UPR SYS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED STG MID/UPR JET...AND SFC COLD FRONT
TRAILING FM DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING NEWD ACRS ERN ONT INTO QUE.
30 TO 40 KT S/SWLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS SYS WILL TRANSPORT MID 60
DWPTS INTO MDT RISK AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
AND LIMITED SFC HEATING...AMS EXPCD TO BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE BY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED LIS OF -4 TO -6. COMBINATION OF INSTBY AND STG
VERTICAL SHEAR SUG GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STG/SVR TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. PROGD HODOGRAPHS SUG SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES WITH VEERING SHEAR VECTOR IN LWR LEVEL OF
HODOGRAPH...ESPECIALLY ACRS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...HOWEVER
PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR EXPCD TO BE DMGG WIND GUSTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT FM THE OHIO VLY...WWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS ...ON SRN EDGE OF STG MID/UPR JET. ALTHOUGH INSTBY WILL BE
LIMITED BY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...SFC BASED LIS STILL EXPCD TO
REACH -4 TO -6 INVOF OF FRONT...AND SHUD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLD
SVR TSTMS GIVEN FVRBL SPD SHEAR ACRS THIS REGION. ISOLD SVR ALSO
PSBL INTO ERN CO...ASSOCD WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK SHRTWV PROGD
TO MOVE ACRS CNTRL ROCKIES.

ELSEWHERE...SHRTWV PROGD TO SWEEP ACRS THE NRN PAC COAST INTO THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE PERIOD...WHERE LI'S TO AROUND
-4 ARE PROGD BY AFTN. ALTHOUGH PRIND SUGS MOISTURE ACRS THIS REGION
WILL BE MARGNINAL...ISOLD TSTMS EXPCD TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STG WIND GUSTS. IF MOISTURE BECOMES GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGD...OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED ACRS THIS REGION.

..KERR.. 08/28/94