National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
ACUS1 KMKC 141440
MKC AC 141500

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 141500 - 151200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVR PTNS OF NRN MN..EXTRM NWRN AND
N CNTRL WI...AND WRN UPR MI TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 20 E MQT
30 WNW RHI BRD 25 E FAR 25 W D45.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 50 NNE MTC
MBS OSH LSE FOD OLU BUB ANW 10 E ABR 60 W D45.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 WNW ELP LVS LHX SNY
45 WSW RAP 20 NW RIW IDA 45 SE BKE OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM ADM JBR BWG LEX
20 NE LUK DNV 10 NNE PIA OTM 20 E FNB ICT OKC ADM.

BROAD UPR LGWV TROF IS EXPCD TO REMAIN OVR NWRN U.S. WITH BAND OF
VERY STG MID/UPR WINDS CONTG FM SRN ORE/NRN CA ENEWD ACRS NRN
PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY. STLT IMAGERY INDCS VORT MAX MOVG ALG THE NRN
MT BORDER INTO EXTRM SWRN SASK ATTM...WITH PRIMARY SFC LOW EXPCD TO
DVLP NWD INTO MAN LTR TDA. STG SFC CDFNT EXPCD TO EXTEND FM THE SFC
LOW AND MOVE SLOLY SEWD ACRS THE ERN DKTS THIS AFTN...AND CONT SEWD
TNGT ACRS PTNS OF MN..ERN SD AND NRN NEB. VERY STG SSWLY LOW LVL
WINDS ARE EVIDENT AHD OF THE CDFNT WITH A VERY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTBL AMS IN PLACE. HWVR... 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO INDC PRESENCE OF
VERY WARM MID LVL TEMPS AND STG CAPPING INVERSION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS FAR NORTH AS STC...SUGG THAT CNVTV DVLPMT WILL NOT OCCUR
IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL PSBLY TNGT WHEN CDFNT ADVANCES SEWD.
PRIMARY THREAT AREA FOR CNVTV DVLPMT IS EXPCD TO BE ALG AND NORTH
OF SFC WRMFNT EXTENDING FM CNTRL MN ESEWD INTO WI WHERE VERY STG
LOW LVL WARM ADVCTN IS OCCURRING.

CURRENT STG CNVTN MOVG EWD ACRS WRN LK SUPR INTO EXTRM WRN UPR MI
HAS REINFORCED TEMP/MSTR GRADIENT NR THE WRMFNT IN MN...BUT GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE SLY WINDS THIS BNDRY MAY LIFT NWD TDA AS THE LK
SUPR CNVTN MOVES RPDLY EWD AWAY FM MN. VERY FVRBL KINEMATIC FIELDS
ARE EXPCD ACRS PTNS OF THE UPR MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS RGN THRU TNGT AS
70-80 KT MID LVL WINDS MOVE NEWD TWD MN...AND 50-60 KT LOW LVL JET
LIFTS NWD ACRS MN AND WRN LK SUPR. THIS WILL CREATE A LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPH SUPPORTIVE OF PTNL SUPERCELLS AND THE ASSOCD THREAT OF
TORNADO DVLPMT. HWVR...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NWD
EXTENT OF NWD WRMFNT MOVEMENT AND PRESENCE OF SGFNT CAPPING
INVERSION SOUTH OF THE BNDRY HAVE OPTED TO OTLK MDT RISK OF SVR
TSTMS OVR THE NRN PTNS OF OTLK RGN. IF CAP DOES NOT DVLP NWD ACRS
MN THIS AFTN...THEN TSTMS MAY RDVLP OVR NRN MN LTR THIS AFTN AND
THIS EVE WITH ACTVTY PROPAGATING EWD TWD WRN LK SUPR AREA. THERE IS
ALSO THE PSBLTY OF CNVTN DVLPG SWD ALG THE ADVANCING CDFNT TNGT IF
LIFT ALG THE FNT IS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND RELEASE THE
LARGE INSTBY.

A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OTLK /PWOMKC/ WILL BE ISSUED BY 16Z.

..WEISS.. 06/14/94