National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
ACUS1 KMKC 031853
MKC AC 031930

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 031930 - 041200Z

REF WW 580...VALID UNTIL 0000Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE FOR PTNS OF
ND...SD...NEB...IA AND MN. THIS AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM Y22
60 NW BIS DVL TVF BRD MKT 15 NW LNK HSI LBF Y22.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM ORF LYH
CRW LUK BMG SPI 10 S OTM BIE CNK GCK GLD RAP SDY 90 N SDY
...CONT...INL IWD IMT APN ...CONT...70 N MPV MPV RUT 20 E ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 90 SW TUS GUP 4BL EKO YKM
BLI ...CONT...60 SW LFT HEZ GLH UMN TUL SPS P07 40 S P07.

STG UPR TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS LOCATED OVR NRN WY
AT 18Z WITH PRONOUNCED UPR DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW OVR ERN
MT/WRN SD/WRN ND. THIS FEATURE WL CONT MOVG EWD THE REST OF THIS
AFTN AND INTO TNGT AS STG MID LVL WINDS...70 KTS AT MEDICINE BOW
WIND PROFILER...ASSOCD WITH THE TROF ADVANCE NEWD. SFC ANALYSIS AT
18Z SHOWED SFC LOW OVR SW ND WITH COLD FRONT XTNDG SWD FROM THE LOW
ACRS WRN SD/WRN NEB/NE CO. WARM FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDED FROM A
TRIPLE POINT OVR SW SD EWD ACRS NRN NEB/CNTRL IA/NRN WI/NRN IND/NRN
OH. LOW LVL MSTR WAS POOLING NORTH OF THIS BNDRY OVR THE DKTS WITH
SFC DWPNTS IN THE LWR 70S OVR PTNS OF SD. FURTHER EAST ALG THE
BNDRY...SFC DWPNTS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACRS IA/IL/IND/SRN
WI/SRN MN. THIS HAS HELPED DESTABILIZE THE ATMOS WITH STATIC LI'S
BTWN -5 AND -10 OVR PTNS OF THE DKTS AND AS LOW AS -10 ACRS
IA/IL/SRN WI. SFC DWPNTS WERE IN THE UPR 60S OVR NEB/KS WHERE STG
SLY LOW LVL JET PERSISTED. THIS WL HELP ADVECT ADDITIONAL MSTR NWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS VLY. STG CAP EXISTED OVR PTNS OF
WRN SD/WRN NEB/NE CO...HOWEVER WITH ADVANCE OF UPR TROF...MID LVL
TEMPS SHUD COOL AND ALLOW AMS TO RELEASE ITS POT INSTBY.

SVR TSTMS ARE XPCD TO DEVELOP OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS INVOF OF WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY FM SD EWD TO WI WHERE STG INSTBY EXISTED AND INVOF OF
SFC LOW OVR SW ND. STG/SVR CNVTN OVR SE MN/SW WI IS XPCD TO CONT
EWD ALG SHARP INSTBY GRADIENT OVR SRN WI WITH LRG HAIL AND DMGG
WINDS AS PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR. FURTHER WEST IN THE HIGH RISK
AREA...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS AND LRG HAIL EXISTS AS
THE STG DYNAMICS OF THE UPR TROF AND STG WIND FIELDS MOV INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SELY SFC WINDS OVR THE DKTS AND
SWLY MID LVL WINDS AT 500 MB...WL AID IN SUPERCELLULAR TSTM DVLPMT
AND TORNADO POT. ACTVTY IN THE HIGH RISK IS XPCD TO CONT TNGT AS
UPR TROF MOVS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THE WARM FRONTAL
BNDRY LIFTS NWD.

ISOLD SVR TSTMS ARE PSBL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVR PTNS OF THE NERN
U.S. IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVG ACRS PTNS OF NY/PA. STG
THERMODYNAMICS EXISTED ALG (AND SOUTH OF THIS BNDRY FROM CNTRL NY
STATE SWD INTO VA. DESPITE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS...ENOUGH
THERMODYNAMICS IN PLACE FOR A FEW PULSE SVR TYPE CELLS WITH LRG
HAIL AND STG WINDS AS PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR.

..EVENSON.. 07/03/93