303 
FXUS63 KFGF 111127
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
527 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will run near mid November normals the rest of
  the week before warming up early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 324 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

500 mb short wave moving into central MN with the rain area
diminishing in coverage across the forecast area and will move
out completely before 12z. Rain amounts in main light rain band
averaged averaged 0.10 to 0.15 inch Devils Lake to Grand Forks
toward Bemidji. Clearing is working southward behind this short
wave, but upstream is an area of stratocu clouds which should
drop southward after daybreak and last into tonight. Coverage
scattered to overcast. Significantly cooler today, with mid 30s
to low 40s...much closer to normal mid November values. Dry
conditions today into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper flow pattern supports northwest flow tonight through late 
Wednesday, with H5 flow turning more northerly heading into 
Thursday. A weak shortwave traverses the flow this evening and 
overnight, with a chance for light rain ahead of an approaching cold 
front. Cooler air works into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest 
Wednesday into Thursday, bringing temperatures back into the range 
of normal for early to mid November. Daytime highs will be in the 
30s to low 40s Wednesday and in the 30s on Thursday and Friday. 
Overnight lows fall into the teens Thursday night into Friday 
morning. Aside from a few scattered rain showers today, dry weather 
is expected to persist through much of the forecast period. 

Looking down the road a bit, there is growing support for a 
potentially active period of weather as we head into the second half 
of November. This starts with a strong signal for blocking across 
the central CONUS and into most of the Canadian Prairies. Resultant 
troughs form on either side of the H5 ridge, which eventually 
dislodge and work eastward. Ensemble clusters are beginning to 
support solutions that hint at precipitation toward the very end of 
the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Expectation today is that an area of MVFR ceilings will drop
south thru most of the area today into tonight. Coverage of the
clouds is uncertain in that there may be times of scattered
coverage vs broken or overcast. Also ceiling bases will likely
vary from 2000 to 3500 ft agl. North wind 8 to 15 kts gusts
20-24 kts in the RRV. 



&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Riddle