968 
FXUS64 KFWD 280013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
713 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday.

- Isolated showers and storms (15-30% chance) are possible across
  portions of Central Texas Wednesday afternoon. 

- Rain and cloud cover will bring near average temperatures on 
  Friday before warmer temperatures in the 80s return this 
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

This afternoon, visible satellite continues to show a shortwave 
disturbance ejecting into the Midwest, with scattered showers and
any remaining cloud cover exiting to the east of the CWA. A 
surface high pressure will reinforce clear skies overnight, 
bringing radiational cooling with lows into the upper 50s and low 
60s.

Wednesday, continued southerly flow will help pull Gulf moisture 
north along the I-35 corridor. Broad warm air advection and 
isentropic lift should provide sufficient forcing for isolated 
showers and storms (20-30%) primarily south of I-20. Some of 
these may be capable of rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour owing to 
1.5"+ PWAT's and tall/skinny CAPE profiles. Despite these 
rainfall rates, flooding is unlikely at this time due to the brief
and spotty nature of any storms that are able to develop. The 
potential for isolated thunderstorms will be driven by weak 
instability (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) as shown in the most recent 
CAMs. Otherwise, warm and humid weather will prevail Wednesday, 
with highs in the mid 80s, and lows back into the lower 60s 
overnight into Thursday morning. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Thursday will bring a period of daily unsettled weather as a shortwave
ejects off the Mexican Plateau. Persistent southerly flow 
throughout the week will bring dewpoints into the 60s by this time.
This moisture return, coinciding with synoptic ascent owing to 
PVA from the aforementioned shortwave will help promote scattered 
rain showers (50% PoP) Thursday through Saturday. Thursday into 
Friday, the greatest rain chances look to stay west of I-35. This 
activity will expand east heading into the weekend. Instability 
looks to be on the weaker end, with the latest LREF ensembles 
offering 200-400 J/kg of MUCAPE. This could be enough for a rumble
of thunder or two amidst the more widespread showery activity. As
this shortwave shunts northeast, broken to overcast skies will 
prevail through the weekend. Despite lingering cloud cover, high 
temperatures will remain above normal in the upper 70s and lower 
80s. Saturday (Halloween) night, any remaining showers will 
continue to decay, leaving behind cool and humid conditions with 
dewpoints in the mid 60s. 

Daily rain chances will continue into early next week, as medium-
range guidance continues to depict a deepening western CONUS trough.
This next upper-level system may bring a fall cold front and mid-
week rain chances. The strength of the cold front and any 
associated convection will become clearer in the coming days, so 
stay tuned for more forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the D10 terminals through 
Wednesday evening. Increasing southerly flow will draw low-level 
moisture northward during the day tomorrow, with a BKN-OVC deck 
around 050 expected to reach the Metroplex by 16Z before ceilings 
lift late in the afternoon. Farther south, MVFR cigs will be more
prevalent across Central Texas around or just after daybreak 
Wednesday morning, though confidence in prevailing MVFR at KACT 
remains low. A TEMPO for BKN015 has been included from 12-17Z to 
account for occasional periods of low cigs. Isolated showers may 
develop across Central Texas in the afternoon, but the probability
of impacts at KACT or the D10 terminals remains too low for 
mention at this time. Southerly winds will generally remain 
between 5-10 kts through the end of the period. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  83  67  82 /   0  10   0   0 
Waco                61  83  65  81 /   0  30   0  10 
Paris               56  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              59  83  63  82 /   0  10   0  10 
McKinney            59  82  63  82 /   0  10   0   0 
Dallas              63  84  68  83 /   0  20   0   0 
Terrell             58  83  63  83 /   0  20   0   0 
Corsicana           60  83  64  82 /   0  30   0   0 
Temple              61  84  65  81 /   0  30   0  10 
Mineral Wells       59  82  62  81 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...12