155 
FXUS64 KFWD 270601
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
101 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the workweek,
  with low rain chances through Wednesday. 

- A change in the weather pattern is expected later this week,
  leading to increasing rain chances from Thursday into Saturday 
  along with slightly cooler temperatures. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A shortwave disturbance is in the process of ejecting
northeastward into the Central Pains early this morning, with
trailing light rain falling from an attendant mid cloud deck 
across parts of North Texas. This light rain will not be 
measurable for most locations, hence PoPs of just 10% advertised 
in the forecast through the early morning hours today. While 
cloudy skies will be present to begin the day, they will accompany
the shortwave off to the east later in the afternoon with only 
scattered high cloud cover remaining by this evening. Light 
south/southeast winds will continue, while highs remain above 
normal in the upper 70s and lower 80s. 

Moist southerly flow will continue into Wednesday, and an 
eastward shift of the low-level moist axis will send dewpoints 
into the upper 50s and lower 60s locally. Although large-scale 
lift will be absent as modest zonal flow aloft prevails through 
midweek, sufficient low-level warm/moist advection may allow for
a few rain showers in parts of Central Texas on Wednesday. 
However, this potential is presently too low to warrant any 
PoPs/precip mention in the public forecast. Expect another 
afternoon of unseasonably warm and humid conditions as a result 
of this warm advection regime, with highs mostly in the mid 80s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A more active extended forecast period is still expected towards 
the end of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances will begin
to increase on Thursday west of I-35 as higher quality moisture
content arrives with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid or
even upper 60s. By Friday, a large-scale pattern shift to deep 
western CONUS troughing will allow a subtropical jet to interact 
with remnant moisture from a Pacific tropical system across New 
Mexico and Texas. This will offer fairly widespread rain chances 
especially near and west of I-35 Friday into Saturday. With 
meager instability present, this activity should consist of a 
broad area of beneficial rainfall with isolated embedded 
thunderstorms. While timing is still uncertain, it appears that 
Halloween festivities could largely be unaffected as much of this 
activity could be winding down during the daytime Saturday. 
Increased cloud cover may limit high temperatures to some extent 
both Friday and Saturday, but temps are likely to remain near or 
above normal without a frontal passage to accompany this system. 

While the Friday/Saturday storm system will be unaccompanied by a
cold frontal passage, a stronger frontal intrusion is looking
increasingly likely for early next week. Most global guidance is
in fairly good agreement regarding the deepening of a potent
Central US upper low by early next week which would be able to 
send a stronger fall cold front through the area on 
Monday or Tuesday. This boundary would also likely offer some 
additional rain chances with its passage should this solution 
come to fruition. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. An upper-level
disturbance is resulting in light rain falling from a cloud deck 
at ~10kft, and this will continue through the early morning hours
across portions of North Texas. Precip chances at the terminals 
are too low to even warrant VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Skies 
will gradually begin to clear later today, while south/southeast 
winds at 5-10 kt continue. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  62  82  63 /   0  10  10   0 
Waco                80  60  82  61 /   0  10  10   0 
Paris               80  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              79  58  81  59 /   0  10  10   0 
McKinney            79  58  81  59 /   0   0  10   0 
Dallas              80  63  83  63 /   0   0  10   0 
Terrell             80  59  81  58 /   0   0  10   0 
Corsicana           78  60  81  61 /   0   0  10   0 
Temple              80  61  83  62 /   0  10   0   0 
Mineral Wells       78  59  81  60 /   0  10  20   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley