610 
FXUS64 KFWD 261036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the workweek,
  with occasional low rain chances mainly near and west of I-35. 

- A change in the weather pattern is expected late this week,
  leading to higher rain chances on Friday and Saturday along 
  with slightly cooler temperatures. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The breakdown of the mid-level ridge axis will allow low rain
chances to finally enter the short term portion of the forecast
late this evening and tonight, while above normal temperatures
persist. A southerly warm advection regime will continue to send
increasing moisture content northward into West Texas and the Big
Country today ahead of a compact mid-level impulse transiting New
Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. This coincident moisture/lift
should result in a broad area of showers and isolated embedded
thunderstorms west of the CWA by this evening. Some of this 
activity may finally enter our western zones around or after 
midnight while gradually decaying, and meager instability should 
keep any thunder occurrences very sparse or perhaps even absent 
entirely. The chances for measurable precipitation overall is 
quite low, thus PoPs will be capped at no more than 20% overnight 
into Tuesday morning. 

As the shortwave disturbance responsible for the overnight rain
chances quickly pivots northeastward out of the area on Tuesday,
rain chances will be rather slim in its wake as weak mid-level
subsidence follows behind. However, continued warm/moist 
advection within the eastward-shifting low-level moist axis may 
still support very isolated shower/storm development on Tuesday 
afternoon mainly west of I-35. Low PoPs will be advertised through
this period as well, but most areas should stay dry. Although the
cirrus canopy associated with the shortwave will be exiting 
during the daytime, the increase in low-level moisture should 
culminate in more widespread low cloud cover, and highs will 
likely be held to the upper 70s and lower 80s as a result. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

During the midweek period, we'll largely be positioned between
storm systems within modest zonal flow aloft, while southerly 
low-level flow persists through the low-levels. This regime will 
maintain above normal temperatures with increasing humidity as 
high temperatures reach the low/mid 80s on a daily basis while 
dewpoints return to the upper 50s and 60s. Although large-scale 
lifting mechanisms will be absent, warm advection could support 
showery precip on Wednesday with coverage probably only reaching 
10% at most. 

A more pronounced pattern shift is still expected by the end of
the workweek as a strong subtropical jet begins to impinge on 
the area from the west on Friday. Following multiple days of 
warm/moist advection, this storm system should be able to harness 
the anomalously moist warm sector to produce fairly widespread 
rainfall from Friday into Saturday. With the thermodynamic 
parameter space lacking significant instability, most of this 
activity looks to consist of beneficial rainfall at this time 
rather than a strong/severe convective event. Peak rain chances 
are currently from the daytime Friday until Saturday evening, 
with activity tending to taper off by Sunday. However, any small 
trajectory differences could still easily shift this timeline by 
~24 hours in the coming days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

There are minimal aviation concerns through the period with light
southeast winds and VFR skies prevailing. A cirrus shield will 
continue to pass overhead this morning, with additional mid/high 
cloud decks arriving later this evening/tonight. All precipitation
is expected to remain west of the TAF sites through Tuesday
morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  62  82  63 /   0  10  20   0 
Waco                81  60  82  61 /   0  10  20   0 
Paris               80  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              80  57  81  59 /   0  10  20   0 
McKinney            80  57  81  58 /   0   0  10   0 
Dallas              82  63  83  63 /   0   0  10   0 
Terrell             81  57  82  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           80  60  81  60 /   0   0  10   0 
Temple              82  61  83  61 /   0   0  20   0 
Mineral Wells       80  59  81  60 /   0  20  20   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley