252 
FXUS65 KBOU 251816
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1216 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A little warmer and drier during the day today, followed by
  another chance of rain and mountain snow late tonight into 
  Monday morning.

- Minor travel impacts across the mountains over the next day or
  so... shifting to mainly the northern mountains Sunday night
  into Monday.

- Warming trend and mostly dry much of upcoming week, with 
  unsettled weather potentially returning next weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 1227 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

An upper level low continues to spin over southern Utah tonight.
Composite radar imagery across the state shows a few batches of
precipitation, mainly centered over southern and eastern Colorado
tonight. There's also been some decent snow accumulation across
portions of Park county over the last several hours, with some
travel impacts noted across a few of the mountain passes in that
area. Some snow should linger through the night, though 
additional accumulation there should be fairly light.

The upper low should continue its slow journey northeastward on
Sunday, leading to one last day of widespread rain and snow across
the region. While the track of this has remained consistent over
the last couple of days, there's still a few parts of the forecast
that remain rather uncertain. 

First, it looks likely that temperatures will be warmer across 
the metro, as deeper stratus has failed to develop tonight... and 
most guidance actually clears out the I-25 corridor as a Denver 
cyclone develops in the morning. It wouldn't be surprising to see
a few 60-65F temperatures during the afternoon hours before deeper
cloud cover redevelops. Second, there is considerable spread with
precipitation totals Sunday night into Monday. A strong vort max
is expected to rotate around the base of the trough, pivoting from
northwestern New Mexico into northeastern Colorado by Monday
morning. A weak surface low should develop in response to this,
but models place the center of this surface low as far west as
Greeley (HRRR) to as far east as Burlington by 09z Monday. Model
consistency in this period is nowhere to be found. The wholesale
mean solution would be for scattered rain/snow showers developing
over the northern mountains during the afternoon, with a more
organized precipitation shield developing north/northwest of the
surface low where stronger synoptic scale lift would combine with
deepening upslope flow. This likely ends up somewhere along our
northern tier of counties, with at least a chance (30-50%) of 
some half inch rainfall totals near the CO/WY border. 

Any precipitation left in the forecast area should quickly move
out of the area during the morning hours Monday, with clearing
skies and near normal temperatures expected. 

The rest of the week looks rather quiet, with warmer and dry
weather likely under broad southwesterly flow aloft. High
temperatures should end up in the 60s to low 70s across the plains
most days. Some moisture could return as early as Friday or
Saturday as a weak shortwave moves through the region, though the
flow aloft would again favor the terrain to the west/southwest of
our CWA. Though details remain hazy, there are signals that the
storm track would remain fairly active from next weekend into
the first couple days of November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday/...
Issued at 1210 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Another tricky TAF period ahead. Current observations show the 
Denver Cyclone located over far southwest Morgan county. Satellite
currently shows the low stratus deck that was prevalent at the 
sites this morning eroding with some scattered lower clouds still
in the vicinity of KBJC for about the next hour. Winds should 
stay north at KBJC all afternoon and remain under 10 kts. The 
latest short-term guidance keeps the shear zone/DCVZ a few miles 
further to the east than earlier forecasts... keeping KAPA and 
KDEN with northerly/northwesterly winds this afternoon of 5-15 kts.
There is still a ~20% chance that KDEN has a few hour period of 
stronger southerly winds (up to 15 kts) late this afternoon with a
slightly higher chance of this occurring at KAPA. This would 
occur if the shear zone is slightly further west than what is 
currently forecast.

Scattered showers are possible through this evening and overnight
with PROB30s starting at 0/1z and lasting through 10z for KDEN and
KAPA. KBJC's highest chances for showers looks to end around 6z. 
Any showers would move in from the southwest and pass off to the 
northeast. Additionally, any shower could lower ceilings to about
4 or 5 SM. Light winds under 10 kts are expected once the showers
pass. As for the wind direction, winds look to be northwesterly 
with perhaps a slight turn to the west as we get into early 
Monday morning.

Later tonight, the attention turns to lowering ceilings and fog.
MOS guidance is in good agreement that we will be contending with
low ceilings and/or fog at all three sites as early as 5-7z later
this evening. Model soundings point towards 10-14z as the period
of highest confidence for the potential of the most impactful
conditions as low-level advection from the north continues causing
MVFR conditions. Visibility could get as low as 3/4 SM to 2 SM 
during this period when a TEMPO is in place which could even 
cause IFR conditions. Low ceilings will be slow to clear in the 
morning as the low levels remain saturated, first lifting at 
KAPA, then KDEN, and finally at KBJC. At KDEN, a sct deck around 
2000 to 4000 ft AGL looks likely for much of the day. Winds for 
Monday afternoon will be northerly and then eventually turn to 
the east for the afternoon and stay under 12 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...MV