612 
FXUS64 KFWD 241805
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather and mostly dry conditions will continue into early
  next week.

- A change in the weather pattern is expected by late next week, 
  bringing slightly cooler temperatures and at least low rain 
  chances. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Conditions across North Central Texas will remain unseasonably
warm and dry through Sunday, as an amplified upper ridge continues
to trek eastward from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley by 
Sunday evening. Highs this afternoon will climb into the mid and 
upper 80s across most areas, under mostly sunny skies. These 
temperatures remain nearly 10 degrees above normal for late 
October. 

On Sunday, a pronounced upper level low over the Four Corners 
region will begin to spread increasing high cloudiness across
our area, possibly accompanied by an incursion of lower clouds 
over Central Texas from around daybreak through midday. The 
combination of decreasing geopotential heights ahead of the low to
our west, along with the cloudiness, should help shave a few 
degrees off our highs for Sunday. It will still feel quite balmy,
however, with values remaining several degrees above 
climatological norms. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The amplified low over the Four Corners this weekend will become 
an open wave and quickly zip northeastward into the Northern 
Plains by Monday morning. The southern fringes of this trough will
brush North Texas, perhaps introducing some additional cloudiness
on Monday. In the wake of this initial upper low, the Southern 
Plains will be under the influence of an energetic full latitude 
southwesterly flow regime through next weekend. Model solutions, 
particularly the Euro and Euro AI ensembles, advertise a fast, 
subtle shortwave moving from Baja California across North Texas by
Tuesday. Neither lift nor moisture will be overly impressive with
this feature, yet it may be sufficient to spawn some widely 
scattered showers across our far western counties during the 
afternoon. Virtually all of our forecast area will remain rain- 
free with this system. 

A more concerted attempt at clouds and precipitation will occur 
in the Thursday through Saturday timeframe, as another weakly
amplified trough moves out of Mexico across the Southern Plains. 
Deep layer moisture associated with this system will be fairly 
substantial, and model solutions depict sustained low and mid 
level isentropic lift across most of North and Central Texas 
Friday and Saturday. Rainfall probabilities will climb into the 
good chance to likely categories from Friday afternoon through 
Saturday afternoon. While the end of the week and next weekend 
won't be a total washout, enough precipitation will be spread 
across this forecast period to potentially impact Halloween plans 
and other activites. 

Day to day temperatures will remain above normal through most of
next week, but will recede closer to typical late October values
by next weekend.  


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at most TAF sites through 00z 
Sunday evening, as a departing upper level ridge continues to 
dominate much of Texas. Any cloudiness across the region will be 
limited for the most part to the high, thin cirrus variety through
tonight and Sunday. However, a tap of low level Gulf moisture is 
expected to develop over Central Texas by late tonight, as low 
level southeastly flow increases just above the surface. This 
moisture may be sufficient to muster some scattered to broken MVFR
cloudiness across Central Texas from 10z to 17z. While no cloud 
group was referenced in the Waco TAF, later forecasts may need to 
include a brief period of SCT-BKN020 at that location. At this 
time, no ceiling restrictions are anticipated in the D10 area 
through Sunday. 

Southeasterly surface winds will persist at all TAF sites through
Sunday, at speeds averaging 4 to 8 knots. 


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  81  59  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                58  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               56  81  54  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              58  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            58  81  55  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              62  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             57  81  54  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           58  80  55  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              59  82  54  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       60  80  56  79 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bradshaw
LONG TERM....Bradshaw
AVIATION...Bradshaw