National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDDMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDDMX
Product Timestamp: 2026-10-24 03:29 UTC
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580 FXUS63 KDMX 240329 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions continue Saturday. Elevated fire weather conditions in cropland. - Rain chances increase slowly from the northwest, cooling temperatures within and to the north of rain. - Stalled boundary will bring split weather conditions next week: Seasonal temperatures north, warm south. Rain chances remain in the picture. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Showers hung on in northern Iowa this afternoon. Ceiling heights in observations were above 15kft and soundings show a dry sub-cloud layer. Dew points at the surface mixed into the upper 40s where clouds didn't reach and winds gusted between 20 and 30mph. Midlevel moisture will continue to be advected northward as the northern segment of the western CONUS trough ejects northward. The southern piece of the trough will remain closed off and stuck in the southwest US. Meanwhile, high pressure is stuck in the Midwest to our east. This is blocking the cold front of the northern stream wave, stalling it in northwest Iowa through the weekend. Rain chances will be in play in the north and northwest, mainly in the overnight hours. Clouds will be common across the area due to moisture advection. The southern portion of the trough will start to fill and migrate northeast into the Plains, bringing increased rain and clouds to the area to end the weekend and begin the following week. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 On late Monday, the wave will tilt negatively across southeast South Dakota. Some CAPE is tucked right in the triple point, but the speed of the system keeps the warm sector out of the state until the overnight hours. CAPE will build on the warm sector of the front as it stalls across the middle of the state. Much of next week will have split weather between the north and southern half. The northern half will have more seasonal temperatures whereas 70 degree highs will be common across the south. Rain and some thunderstorms will remain in the picture. This pattern will remain until the east CONUS ridge is broken down by a stronger system from the west. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Main impact through the overnight will be LLWS particularly at KFOD/KMCW. Though surface winds near 10 knots will be present, latest analysis is showing 35-40 knot winds at 2kft with ~30 degrees of veering. The LLWS is expected to mix out shortly after sunrise. There is a low (~20%) chance of showers at KFOD/KMCW between 00-06z, and will need to be monitored for PROB30/TEMPO inclusion in future issuances. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jimenez LONG TERM...Jimenez AVIATION...De Bruin