574 
FXUS64 KMOB 220522
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1222 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

 - Moderate to strong northeast winds may create hazardous
   conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday
   night into Monday morning.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from
   Saturday through Sunday night.

 - Dry conditions continue through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Now through Saturday night, a mean upper trough remains located 
along the East Coast into the weekend, with an upper ridge 
stretching north along the Mississippi River. A nor'easter located 
off the Mid Atlantic region moves off, with additional shortwave 
energy moving into the mean trough. This energy organizes into a 
closed system off the Carolina coast, which then meanders south to 
over the southern tip of Florida by Saturday night. An associated 
surface low is slow to develop, eventually forming a weak low over 
the Caribbean. The pressure gradient along the East Coast to Gulf 
tightens as a surface high organizes over the Mid-Atlantic region, 
bringing increasing northeasterly flow over the Southeast and 
associated waters. A drier airmass over the forecast area and nearby 
for the weekend is maintained over the period. The forecast remains 
dry, but increasing northeasterly winds will may an increase in the 
risk of fire issues when combined with lower daytime relative 
humidities. The increasing northerly flow also brings a bit cooler 
airmass, with high temperatures falling closer to seasonal norms for 
the weekend. The ridge west of the forecast area will help to create 
a west to east gradient of temperatures, with higher temperatures 
over western portions of the forecast area, cooler east. Around 80 
east to low 80s west fall into the mid 70s east/upper 70s west by 
Saturday. The dry airmass will help overnight radiational cooling, 
with low temperatures remaining below seasonal norms, especially 
well inland. Low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s north of 
Highway 84 to mid 50s along and south of the I-10 corridor expected.

Sunday through Wednesday sees a stream of shortwave energy moving 
through a mean upper trough over the western Conus and over the 
upper ridge, shifting the ridge south, and a weak shortwave trough 
passing over the Southeast Wednesday. With little to no moisture 
return over the Southeast as the surface high over the eastern Conus 
is maintained, a dry forecast continues. High temperatures see a 
rise to well above seasonal norms through the extended, and low 
temperatures remaining below seasonal norms.

Taking a look at the Rip Risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is 
maintained through the rest of the week. With the tightening 
pressure gradient over the Gulf, increasing northeast to easterly 
winds will bring increased swell to area beaches and a return of 
High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend into the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light to moderate northeasterly winds will continue through 
Friday. Moderate to strong northeasterly to easterly winds develop 
Friday night and linger into the weekend. Wind gusts may approach 
gale force mainly well offshore Saturday night and Sunday. A Small 
Craft Advisory will likely become necessary for much of the marine 
area starting Friday and running until ending at some point on 
Monday.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      53  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Pensacola   58  79  56  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Destin      59  79  56  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Evergreen   47  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Waynesboro  47  80  43  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Camden      47  77  44  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Crestview   49  79  47  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$