309 
FXUS65 KBOU 172039
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
239 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and mild for the season through the middle of next 
  week.
  

- Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing
  chance of showers and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Not a cloud in the sky today across our area with soundings and 
current observations showing 40-50 degree dewpoint depressions and a 
dry vertical profile. Winds will remain light, with the exception of 
the easternmost Colorado plains, where southerly winds at 10-15 mph 
with sporadic gusts up to 25 mph will be possible. As such, elevated 
to locally critical fire weather conditions may occur over portions 
of Lincoln and Washington counties this afternoon although these 
conditions should be short-lived. High temperatures this afternoon 
are expected to be in the mid 70s for the low elevations, while the 
mountains experience a wider range of temperatures in the 50s and 
60s. Cloud cover from a decaying disturbance will drift over the 
region tomorrow leading to temperatures a few degrees cooler than 
today, though still in the low 70s for the plains and Denver 
metro.

A return to southwest flow aloft and a weak shortwave will bring a 
slight chance (15-25% PoPs) for some rain and snow showers over the 
high terrain Monday, although no snow accumulation is expected and 
rainfall amounts will reach a trace at most. 

An upper level trough will start to deepen off the Pacific 
Northwest coast late Monday night. This upper level trough will 
slide south and become a strong cutoff low as it approaches the 
California coast and begins to move east on Wednesday. Southwest 
flow aloft will intensify across the Four Corners region ahead of
this cutoff low on Wednesday afternoon, bringing increasing 
moisture and precipitation chances for the high country late 
Wednesday into Thursday. 

Upper level flow will turn more southerly on Thursday, and 
this is when the bulk of the Pacific moisture plume will arrive. 
However, as it stand now, our area will likely be under a 
downsloping regime with south-southwesterly flow favoring orographic 
lift over southwestern Colorado and the San Juan Mountains 
primarily. This will be a system to watch as the week progresses 
given that slight changes in the track of this cutoff low could 
bring the potential for heavy rain closer to our area. Regarding 
snow chances with this system, the airmass appears to be too warm to 
support snow levels lower than 10,000-11,000ft until the next cold 
front arrives on Saturday, likely after the moisture has moved 
off to the east. 


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with virtually no
clouds. Winds are starting to become VRB before settling into a 
east/southeast direction this afternoon. Winds return to drainage 
tonight. There is a low (~20% chance) that KBJC sees some stronger
downslope winds, up to 15 kts, early Sunday morning. Expect a 
similar pattern tomorrow- winds briefly VRB and then 
east/southeast.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AA
AVIATION...MV