885 
FXUS65 KBOU 171706
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1106 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and warmer for the weekend through the middle of next
  week. 

- Next storm system will arrive late next week with an increasing
  chance of showers and mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Friday/...
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

We're off to a chilly start to the evening across the Platte River
valley and some localized portions of the I-25 corridor. A few of
our typical cold spots in the plains have already dipped below
freezing, and a hard freeze is still expected across most of the
northeastern plains overnight tonight. Temperatures should remain
in the mid 30s to low 40s across most of the I-25 corridor, but
there could be some patchy frost overnight.

Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 70s across the
plains on Saturday as the upper level ridge remains over the
region. The airmass is exceptionally dry and it will be difficult
to even muster a cloud during the day. 

The ridge is expected to push off to the east by Sunday, as a weak
cutoff low transitions back to an open wave, eventually drifting
towards the forecast area under weak southwesterly flow. The only
notable change in the weather will be an increase in cloud cover
during the day Sunday, but temperatures are still expected to
remain in the 70s. 

That shortwave should move through our forecast area by Monday,
bringing a slight chance of rain/snow showers to the higher
terrain, while the plains remain mild and dry. A few showers could
continue through mid-week with moisture lingering in the south-
southwesterly flow aloft.

By the latter half of the week, the chances for a more organized
storm system increase. A strong cutoff low is expected to be
centered over southern California by Thursday, which then shifts
east towards Colorado by late week or sometime next weekend. As is
stands right now, the majority of deterministic and ensemble
guidance keeps almost all of the meaningful precipitation to the
south and west of our forecast area. Of course, this potential
storm system is still about a week out, and it's likely we'll see
shifts in the storm track over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with virtually no
clouds. Winds are starting to become VRB before settling into a 
east/southeast direction this afternoon. Winds return to drainage 
tonight. There is a low (~20% chance) that KBJC sees some stronger
downslope winds, up to 15 kts, early Sunday morning. Expect a 
similar pattern tomorrow- winds briefly VRB and then 
east/southeast.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hiris
AVIATION...MV