970 
FXUS64 KFWD 150719
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
219 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for
  western North TX through Thursday night.

- A strong cold front this evening/tonight will bring windy 
  conditions on Friday. Peak wind gusts to around 40 mph are 
  likely much of the day.

- Much cooler and quiet conditions are expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

An active convective pattern will continue to unfold across West
TX and Oklahoma early this morning with disturbances moving
through the SW flow aloft, ahead of the upper level trough
ejecting into the Central Plains later today. Some of this
activity has reached primarily our western Red River counties 
this morning, with scattered showers and a storm or two expected 
to continue impacting our northwest counties through the morning 
(40-60%). For most of the area, the remainder of the overnight
hours will be quiet with broken low clouds and south winds 10-15 
mph.

This trend should continue through the morning hours with much of
the region remaining rain-free during the first half of the day.
With low clouds scattering out, highs will climb into the 80s and
low 90s ahead of the cold front. Low-level moisture being drawn
northward will pool along the front, while drier air has
infiltrated the southeast.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop across western
North TX during the afternoon and evening as the front approaches.
Rain chances will be highest generally from Cisco to Mineral 
Wells to Gainesville (60-80%) with activity becoming more 
isolated heading east and southeast. This is in part due to the 
drier air, particularly in the midlevels across much of the 
forecast area. As the front moves through elsewhere, a quick band
of showers may develop with the lift from the front and sufficient 
low-level moisture, but anything beyond a period of brief, light 
rain is unlikely for areas east of I-35. For areas in between, 
including the I-35 corridor in North TX and all of western 
Central TX, isolated showers/storms are possible, but coverage 
should decrease as the front approaches, with a 30-50% chance of 
seeing any rain. Across our western and northwestern counties, 
modest instability may support a couple of stronger storms with 
gusty winds, but the overall threat is low and severe weather is 
not expected.

Otherwise, as the front enters our northwestern counties late this
afternoon and early evening, a sharp northerly wind shift is
anticipated with temperatures dropping into the 70s and
eventually into the 60s from the NW to the SE. Winds will increase
to 15 to 25 mph behind the front Thursday night with gusts of
30-35 mph through midnight. After midnight, the gustier conditions
are expected into Friday with a few peak gusts of 40-45 mph. Lows
tonight in the wake of the front will drop into the low 50s NW to
low 60s SE.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

In the wake of the cold front, gusty north winds will continue 
Friday as high pressure builds southward through the Plains. A 
strong pressure gradient across the region will support sustained
winds of 20-30 mph and gusts mostly to 40 mph, while continued
cold air advection will keep temperatures in the low 60s across 
the northwest to the low 70s in the Brazos Valley. Be sure to 
secure any Halloween decorations due to the gusty winds and use 
caution if driving high profile vehicles on E-W roads. 

Gusty winds will gradually diminish Friday night, with highs in 
the 60s areawide Saturday. High pressure will remain in control 
through the rest of the weekend, with winds gradually shifting to 
the east on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate slightly Sunday, 
climbing back into the 70s, with a return to low 80s for much of 
the area by Tuesday as southerly flow returns. Latest guidance has
trended towards a slower return of moisture into mid to late 
week, with the NBM a few degrees cooler Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should remain closer to normal early next week before
highs return to the mid and upper 80s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail with broken low clouds just off 
to the northwest and southwest of D10 and Waco at this time. Have 
adjusted the timing of the MVFR potential slightly from 10Z-14Z 
based on latest trends. South winds around 11-16 kts will 
continue much of today before the arrival of a cold front Thursday
evening. Winds will quickly shift to the north behind the front, 
increasing to 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts. A few showers and
storms may accompany the front, but the greatest potential for 
this still remains further west. FROPA timing has been adjusted
slightly in line with the latest guidance, now closer to 01Z for
D10 and 04Z for Waco. A deck of lower end VFR stratus is expected
behind the front, but confidence in immediate arrival of MVFR cigs
is low, so this trend has been adjusted slightly. Cigs of 3000-5000
ft are likely just behind the front, then lowering to MVFR for 
several hours before a north to south clearing occurs Friday AM. 
Timing and extent of these ceilings is more uncertain given the 
dependency on FROPA and will be monitored. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  59  65  49 /  20  40   0   0 
Waco                89  60  68  49 /  10  30  10   0 
Paris               89  57  65  46 /   0  30   0   0 
Denton              89  54  64  45 /  40  50   0   0 
McKinney            88  56  64  44 /  10  40   0   0 
Dallas              91  60  67  49 /  10  40   0   0 
Terrell             89  58  66  47 /  10  20   0   0 
Corsicana           89  60  67  48 /   0  20   0   0 
Temple              90  61  70  48 /   0  40  10   0 
Mineral Wells       89  55  64  43 /  50  80   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gordon
LONG TERM....Gordon
AVIATION...Gordon