886 
FXUS63 KFGF 140752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
252 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds Thursday afternoon may reach advisory criteria over
  eastern North Dakota and the Red River valley behind a cold
  front passage. 

- Best chance for widespread freezing temperatures will be
  Friday night. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR cloud deck is slowly clearing southward thru SW Manitoba
with clearing area headed toward Bottineau and meanwhile the
west to east clearing that was moving into central ND has
stalled. Therefore confidence is now high that clouds will hold
in the western fcst area that was under a freeze warning. With
temperatures staying well above 32F due to clouds and confidence
high that it will remain so did cancel the freeze warning we had
out. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...Synopsis...

High pressure settles into the Northern Plains tonight into 
Wednesday morning, allowing cooler temperatures in the upper 20s to 
low 40s overnight. Daytime highs Wednesday should be able to climb 
into the 50s in most areas. Slightly warmer air returns heading into 
Thursday as a cold front approaches the area. Nearly zonal h5 flow 
prevails ahead of the front, with upper flow turning northwest, then 
north by Thursday morning as the front dives southeast. A surge of 
cooler air brings overnight lows into the upper 20s to low 30s 
Thursday night and Friday. Shortwave ridging then builds into the 
Northern Plains for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures both days 
are expected to return to above average values in the mid 60s to 
near 70 degrees.


...Freezing Temperatures Tonight into Wednesday Morning...

Cloud cover will slowly clear from west to east overnight, allowing 
efficient radiative cooling as high pressure settles into the area. 
With sufficient clearing, temperatures should be able to fall into 
the upper 20s to near 30 degrees; however, there is still some 
uncertainty about how much clearing we will see. If clouds are 
slower to clear, temperatures will run warm enough to stay above 
freezing.

...Enhanced Fire Weather Possible Friday...

Breezy northwest winds are expected Thursday afternoon and evening 
as dry air moves into the area. Heading into Friday, RH values fall 
into the 25-35 percent range, with winds diminishing heading into 
the afternoon. There could be a brief period of combined winds and 
low RH values, although supporting scenarios are fewer today than 
yesterday. Will need to continue monitoring the timing of the front 
as current guidance has added substantial forward speed, thus 
slightly reducing the fire risk.

...Temperatures Near Freezing Thursday and Friday Night...

Cold air advection follows the Thursday/Friday system, bringing 
temperatures into the 20s and low 30s Thursday and Friday nights. We 
are still watching for a scenario with more cloud cover, which 
serves to maintain a slightly higher overnight low temp. It is also 
worth noting that winds remain somewhat elevated overnight, which 
could also play a role in keeping temperatures a bit warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Widespread MVFR stratus extends across eastern ND and northwest
MN, with the back edge over western ND. There is still a lot of
uncertainty on the timing of when this low cloud layer will
finally break up and VFR conditions prevail, with trends 
seeming to slow things down. In any case, VFR should eventually 
return west to east Wednesday, though it may be more towards 
late morning in eastern ND and in the mid to late afternoon (or 
early evening) across northwest MN. This timing follows the 
trends of slower guidance that have been handling the pattern a 
bit better.

Surface high pressure building over the region will result in
light winds around 5kt or less at most locations through
Wednesday afternoon. Winds do shift to the south and start to
increase closer to 10kt in central ND Wednesday evening as low
pressure begins to rebuild to the west.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR