769 
FXUS65 KBOU 140453
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1053 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler temperatures and wet conditions through Thursday.

- More widespread rain and mountain snow still on schedule for
  Wednesday afternoon - Wednesday night, before winding down
  on Thursday  

- Several inches (6-12") of snow expected for the mountains above
  9,000 to 10,000 feet with travel impacts late Wednesday thru 
  Thursday morning. Lighter snow and at least a dusting into the 
  mountain valleys and higher foothills. 

- First freeze of the season likely over most of the plains late
  Thursday night into early Friday morning.

- Drier and warmer again for the weekend. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

An upper level low will be near the Four Corners area by 12z Wed and 
then track slowly northeast into nern CO by 12z Thu.  The overall 
track of the low is a bit further north than what was shown last 
night. However, there will be rather strong QG ascent associated 
with the system along with favorable lapse rates and plenty of 
moisture. Overall, will continue to see rounds of showers through 
Wed aftn with snow levels lowering to 8000 ft in the aftn. Highs 
on Wed will stay mainly in the 40's across most of nern CO.

For Wed night, as the upper level low moves closer to the front 
range, may see a decrease in precipitation along portions of the I-
25 Corridor and over the higher terrain along and south of I-70 by
mid evening, while precipitation continues over the plains and 
nrn areas of the foothills and mtns. By 12z Thu, the upper level 
low will be over nern CO and then move into swrn NE by early Thu 
aftn. Meanwhile, another surge of cooler air will move across the 
plains with northerly low level flow. This feature, combined with 
moisture wrapping around the upper level low, may lead to a round
of rain along portions of the I-25 Corridor and plains thru the 
morning hours. By aftn, the upper level low will gradually weaken
as it continues to move east. Thus should see a gradual decrease 
in precipitation thru the aftn hours. As for highs, readings will 
be in the 40's to mid 50's across the plains.

By Thu night into Fri an upper level high will build over the area. 
This will lead to dry conditions with moderating temperatures. 
Meanwhile, the first freeze of the season still looks likely over 
most of the plains late Thu night into Fri morning.  

For the weekend, a weak upper level disturbance will move across 
late Sat into early Sun.  However, cross-sections continue to show 
limited moisture with this feature.  Thus expect dry conditions to 
continue as temps warm back to above seasonal normals.

Looking ahead to early next week, the low aloft will become 
southwesterly as an upper level trough develops over the wrn US.  As 
a result, this will lead to dry conditions with a continuation of 
above normal temperatures. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/...
Issued at 538 PM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected this evening, before an extended
period of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight through Wednesday.

A few showers have developed across the foothills over the last
hour, which are attempting to push eastward into the Denver metro.
This largely matches output from high resolution guidance (though
the HRRR has struggled to place these properly)... and the general
consensus is that SHRA should become more widespread through
03-04z tonight. There should also be rapid development of low 
stratus between 03-06z, with IFR or LIFR cigs likely at the
terminals. There are some minor timing differences from this
afternoon's guidance but nearly all models have at least IFR cigs
by 06z.

Once stratus develops tonight, it will persist through the rest of
the TAF period, aided by consistent light easterly upslope winds.
Periods of rain are also likely tonight and Wednesday... with one
round expected overnight tonight and a more organized band of rain
possible Wednesday afternoon. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday 
for COZ031-033-034.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RPK
AVIATION...Hiris