267 
FXUS63 KFGF 132002
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
302 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Freezing temperatures, as low as 29 degrees, are expected west
 of the Red River Valley tonight into Wednesday morning.

-Dry and windy conditions are expected later this week, 
 bringing the potential for enhanced fire weather.

-Freezing temperatures are expected Thursday night and Friday 
 night across much of the region. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

...Synopsis...

High pressure settles into the Northern Plains tonight into 
Wednesday morning, allowing cooler temperatures in the upper 20s to 
low 40s overnight. Daytime highs Wednesday should be able to climb 
into the 50s in most areas. Slightly warmer air returns heading into 
Thursday as a cold front approaches the area. Nearly zonal h5 flow 
prevails ahead of the front, with upper flow turning northwest, then 
north by Thursday morning as the front dives southeast. A surge of 
cooler air brings overnight lows into the upper 20s to low 30s 
Thursday night and Friday. Shortwave ridging then builds into the 
Northern Plains for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures both days 
are expected to return to above average values in the mid 60s to 
near 70 degrees.


...Freezing Temperatures Tonight into Wednesday Morning...

Cloud cover will slowly clear from west to east overnight, allowing 
efficient radiative cooling as high pressure settles into the area. 
With sufficient clearing, temperatures should be able to fall into 
the upper 20s to near 30 degrees; however, there is still some 
uncertainty about how much clearing we will see. If clouds are 
slower to clear, temperatures will run warm enough to stay above 
freezing.

...Enhanced Fire Weather Possible Friday...

Breezy northwest winds are expected Thursday afternoon and evening 
as dry air moves into the area. Heading into Friday, RH values fall 
into the 25-35 percent range, with winds diminishing heading into 
the afternoon. There could be a brief period of combined winds and 
low RH values, although supporting scenarios are fewer today than 
yesterday. Will need to continue monitoring the timing of the front 
as current guidance has added substantial forward speed, thus 
slightly reducing the fire risk.

...Temperatures Near Freezing Thursday and Friday Night...

Cold air advection follows the Thursday/Friday system, bringing 
temperatures into the 20s and low 30s Thursday and Friday nights. We 
are still watching for a scenario with more cloud cover, which 
serves to maintain a slightly higher overnight low temp. It is also 
worth noting that winds remain somewhat elevated overnight, which 
could also play a role in keeping temperatures a bit warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

IFR to MVFR stratus continues to impact all TAF locations this 
afternoon, with slow improvement expected late this evening and
overnight. Winds remain out of the northwest at 7-12 knots, but
will diminish overnight and become light and variable as high
pressure fills into the area.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch