315 
FXUS64 KFWD 111938
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
238 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above-average temperatures will continue early this week, with 
  heat indices approaching 100 degrees on Tuesday. 

- Isolated afternoon storms are possible across Central Texas on 
  Monday and Tuesday. 

- An unsettled pattern will bring an uptick in precip chances 
  starting Wednesday and cooler temperatures expected beginning 
  Friday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Tropical moisture, originally associated with last week's Hurricane 
Isaias and characterized by PW values of 2+ inches, has been pulled 
westward along the southern periphery of a high pressure system in 
the northern Gulf and is slowly making its way into Deep South Texas 
today. Breezy southerly flow in response to a tightened pressure 
gradient across the Southern Plains will begin to advect this plume 
of moisture toward North and Central TX over the next couple days. 
For the moment, however, the atmospheric profile remains dry across 
our area. The dry environment will promote efficient boundary layer 
mixing today and tomorrow, as it has the last several days. Combined 
with mostly sunny skies and large-scale subsidence from a mid-level 
ridge, highs will continue to reach the upper 80s to low 90s 
areawide. 

Following the arrival of rich moisture, dewpoints on Tuesday will be 
in the low-to-mid 70s, and with temps still likely to climb into the 
90s, afternoon heat index values may approach the century mark in 
parts of North and Central TX. The moisture advection will also 
support isolated diurnal convection in Central TX on Monday and 
Tuesday afternoon, with the highest coverage of showers and storms 
in the Brazos Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Rain chances will become more widespread Wednesday through Friday as 
an upper-level system approaches. Plentiful moisture, sufficient 
instability, and diurnal heating should allow scattered afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms to develop across much of North and 
Central TX. However, the upper trough will be the main driver of 
more widespread rainfall, primarily for our northwest counties.

Much ink has already been spilled over the uncertainties in the 
evolution of the upper trough currently digging toward the Great 
Basin and its progression east of the Rockies. Despite their clear 
differences, both the GEFS/GEPS, which favor a progressive trough, 
and the ENS, which delays the trough, position the right entrance 
region of a jet streak approximately over the Big Country and 
Northwest TX, with relatively small variations in location. This 
area of weak forcing would be most favorable for rainfall on 
Wednesday evening and Thursday. Model guidance suggests convection
will begin in the High Plains on Wednesday along a dryline, then 
propagating eastward into our northwestern counties in the late 
evening and overnight hours. Rain will continue through Thursday 
in these areas as a cold front begins to push through North and 
Central TX. At this time, most likely rainfall amounts in our 
northwest range from 0.5-1.5 inches, but localized areas could see
higher amounts.

The Euro has also come into agreement with other guidance that the 
cold front will push fully through North and Central TX Thursday 
night into Friday, bringing below-average, fall-like temperatures to 
the area. The strength of this front is still in question, but the 
LREF shows low temperatures most likely falling into the upper 40s 
and 50s at some point over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds of 10-15KT with occasional gusts 
up to 25KT will prevail through the rest of today. Wind gusts should 
diminish after sunset, then begin once more after 15Z tomorrow. 
Tomorrow morning around 11-12Z, low clouds are expected to stream 
northward into Central TX, perhaps as far north as the Metroplex. 
Given uncertainty in the coverage of these low clouds and the low 
(20-35%) probabilities of MVFR cigs in text guidance, we have opted 
not to mention MVFR cigs in the 18Z TAF cycle.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  70  90  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                90  68  91  75 /   0   0  10  10 
Paris               89  66  90  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              91  69  91  74 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            89  68  89  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              91  71  92  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             90  66  91  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           90  67  91  74 /   0   0  10   0 
Temple              92  68  92  74 /   0   0  20  10 
Mineral Wells       91  66  90  72 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Fenske
AVIATION...Fenske