996 
FXUS64 KFWD 111142
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Above-average temperatures will continue through early week,
  with heat indices approaching 100 degrees on Tuesday. 

- Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across central Texas on
  Monday and the Brazos Valley on Tuesday. 

- An unsettled pattern arrives mid-to-late week, with an uptick in
  precipitation chances starting Wednesday and cooler temperatures
  expected by Friday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday) 
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A few high clouds are beginning to make their way into northern 
Texas well-ahead of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel, which is currently 
positioned just off the coast of Baja California. To the east across 
the Mid-South, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias will continue to 
progress ENE, departing through the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the 
day on Monday. Subtropical ridging will build across the southern 
CONUS in its wake, which will be the primary driver of our region's 
weather in the short term. 

06Z objective RAP analysis depicts a now-closed 1016mb surface high 
over the northern Gulf, with further strengthening expected as 
the aforementioned subtropical ridge builds. Aloft and to the 
west, southwesterly southern-stream flow will accelerate through 
the southern Rockies in advance of an amplifying western CONUS 
trough, driving lee troughing and eventual lee cyclogenesis 
across the central High Plains. A resultant tightening of the 
surface pressure gradient between the lee pressure falls and the 
northern Gulf high will induce breezier southerly surface flow and
low- level moisture advection across the region. Guidance is 
suggesting a seasonal over-performance of this moisture; it 
appears that the evolving high pressure across the northern Gulf 
will orient return flow with origins from a deep plume of tropical
moisture pulled along the eastern flank of the cyclonic 
circulation of Isaias. Adequate diurnal mixing keeps surface 
dewpoint values relatively lower today and Monday, but the arrival
of deeper moisture from the Tropical Pacific on Tuesday may 
inhibit the diurnal drop-off in dewpoints via vertical mixing to 
some extent on Tuesday. Surface dewpoint values in the mid-70s 
coupled with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s would drive 
apparent temperatures towards the triple digits for the day on 
Tuesday. 

Diurnally driven convection may also make a return across 
central Texas on Monday and the Brazos Valley on Tuesday as diabatic 
heating of the moist airmass promotes adequate instability. Forecast 
soundings show subtle warm nosing around 700mb as synoptic 
subsidence lingers, however convective allowing guidance initiates 
isolated showers and thunderstorms nonetheless. Any development 
would be pulse in nature given the weak ambient kinematic fields. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday) 
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Attention then turns to the progression of the upper trough that 
will advance east towards the Plains during the middle of the 
week. While there is good agreement amongst the 00Z global suite 
in the trough's position through Wednesday afternoon (the closed 
mid/upper level circulation being centered over eastern Utah), 
considerable variability is present thereafter. The ultimate 
progression of the trough will come down to how the upper air 
pattern evolves across the northern Pacific. 

The ECMWF depicts greater amplification of the upstream ridge which 
effectively pinches the trough off from the primary branch of the 
polar jet. It subsequently stalls and allows for prolonged air 
modification behind the cold front, which would result in a muted 
temperature departure with eventual frontal passage. 

The GFS depicts a continued progressive translation of the trough, 
as the upstream ridge effectively fails to pinch it off from the 
jet. It gets swept up into a separate system diving south out of 
Canada, which would push a more "aggressive" cold front through the 
region. 

Regardless, large-scale ascent begins to impinge on the region on 
Wednesday, with increasing precipitation chances following suite. 
The greatest QPF signal exists from the Metroplex north and west on 
Wednesday, lingering into Friday morning. If a more progressive 
system is realized, the potential for a few organized storms 
would exist towards the Red River Thursday night into Friday along
the advancing cold front, where ~30kts of 0-6 BWD would reside. 
As mentioned, considerable uncertainty remains and details will 
continue to be worked out as confidence increases. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Intermittent ceiling reductions are ongoing at ACT as a narrow
deck of low clouds (bases around 1 kft) continue to develop along
the I-35 corridor south of Waco. The KGRK VAD depicts 1km flow
trajectories of 180, which will continue to bring intermittent 
MVFR impacts through mid morning. This cloud deck has made it 
into extreme southeastern Dallas County as of 1130Z; expectations 
are for reduced ceilings to stay east of the D10 terminals given 
veered 1km flow per the KFWS VAD compared to that of GRK. Satellite
trends will continue to be monitored. 

VFR will prevail for all terminals thereafter. Southerly winds
will strengthen today, gusting to 25kts at times. A few high
clouds above 25 kft can be expected. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  70  90  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                91  67  90  74 /   0   0  10   0 
Paris               89  66  89  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              91  69  91  73 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            90  67  89  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              92  70  91  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             91  66  90  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           91  67  90  73 /   0   0  10   0 
Temple              92  68  92  73 /   0   0  10   0 
Mineral Wells       91  66  91  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dornsife
LONG TERM....Dornsife
AVIATION...Dornsife