615 
FXUS64 KFWD 110732
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
232 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather is expected through early next week, with cool 
  nights and warm afternoons.

- Low rain chances will return to parts of the region Wednesday, 
  with better thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through 
  Thursday.

- A cold front is expected late in the week, bringing an end to 
  the unseasonably warm weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A few high clouds are beginning to make their way into northern 
Texas well-ahead of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel, which is currently 
positioned just off the coast of Baja California. To the east across 
the Mid-South, Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias will continue to 
progress ENE, departing through the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the 
day on Monday. Subtropical ridging will build across the southern 
CONUS in its wake, which will be the primary driver of our region's 
weather in the short term. 

06Z objective RAP analysis depicts a now-closed 1016mb surface high 
over the northern Gulf, with further strengthening expected as 
the aforementioned subtropical ridge builds. Aloft and to the 
west, southwesterly southern-stream flow will accelerate through 
the southern Rockies in advance of an amplifying western CONUS 
trough, driving lee troughing and eventual lee cyclogenesis 
across the central High Plains. A resultant tightening of the 
surface pressure gradient between the lee pressure falls and the 
northern Gulf high will induce breezier southerly surface flow and
low- level moisture advection across the region. Guidance is 
suggesting a seasonal over-performance of this moisture; it 
appears that the evolving high pressure across the northern Gulf 
will orient return flow with origins from a deep plume of tropical
moisture pulled along the eastern flank of the cyclonic 
circulation of Isaias. Adequate diurnal mixing keeps surface 
dewpoint values relatively lower today and Monday, but the arrival
of deeper moisture from the Tropical Pacific on Tuesday may 
inhibit the diurnal drop-off in dewpoints via vertical mixing to 
some extent on Tuesday. Surface dewpoint values in the mid-70s 
coupled with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s would drive 
apparent temperatures towards the triple digits for the day on 
Tuesday. 

Diurnally driven convection may also make a return across 
central Texas on Monday and the Brazos Valley on Tuesday as diabatic 
heating of the moist airmass promotes adequate instability. Forecast 
soundings show subtle warm nosing around 700mb as synoptic 
subsidence lingers, however convective allowing guidance initiates 
isolated showers and thunderstorms nonetheless. Any development 
would be pulse in nature given the weak ambient kinematic fields. 


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Gulf moisture will continue to stream into Texas early next week, 
and with additional moisture aloft moving in from the Pacific on 
Monday, PW values should rise to 1.8-2 inches, indicating an 
anomalously moist environment for this time of year. Low-level 
moisture advection has a 10-20% chance of producing some isolated 
precip in the Brazos valley each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, but 
the vast majority across our area will remain dry due to a nearby 
mid-level ridge. As the ridge strengthens and moves overhead 
Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be on an upward trend, 
reaching the low-to-mid 90s during the day and falling only into 
the 70s at night.

Ensemble guidance has maintained the mid-to-late week signal for 
rain chances across the Southern Plains as an upper-level trough 
axis is expected to progress east of the Rockies, bringing at least 
weak forcing for ascent to the region. However, uncertainty has 
increased since yesterday in the progression of the trough and its 
associated cold front. The GEFS suite, AI-GFS, and EC-AIFS 
continue to favor a more progressive trough, which almost all 
guidance backed yesterday. This solution would bring the front in 
earlier, likely on Friday, and would cause a greater drop in 
temps. About one third of LREF members, mostly ENS, have trended 
slower with the trough, delaying frontal passage until the weekend
and keeping milder post-frontal temps. The 12Z deterministic Euro
even has the front stalling in Central TX. Full frontal passage 
still appears more likely at this time, but we'll be monitoring 
for trends in the guidance over the coming days.

As a result, our confidence is higher that the front will bring
notably cooler temps to North TX compared to Central TX. 
Regardless, we are confident that high moisture content and 
sufficient instability for precipitation will be in place midweek,
particularly near the Red River, where these ingredients may
overlap with modest shear to produce a few organized 
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. At this time, the best 
rain chances appear to be Wednesday evening through Friday morning
(or the arrival of the front). Should the front be delayed or 
even stall out in Central TX, rain chances may extend into next 
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

D10 airspace: VFR conditions will prevail through the period. 
Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 kts by mid-morning, with 
gusts up to 25 kts possible through the afternoon. Expect a few high 
clouds above 25 kft. 

ACT: VFR conditions will prevail overall, aside from the 
development of a low cloud deck and a resultant reduction in 
ceilings likely to impact ACT between 13-16Z. Winds will increase
to ~11 kts, gusting over 20 kts at times through the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  70  90  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                91  67  90  74 /   0   0  10   0 
Paris               89  66  89  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              91  69  91  73 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            90  67  89  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              92  70  91  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             91  66  90  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           91  67  90  73 /   0   0  10   0 
Temple              92  68  92  73 /   0   0  10   0 
Mineral Wells       91  66  91  71 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dornsife
LONG TERM....Fenske
AVIATION...Dornsife