540 
FXUS64 KFWD 102308
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
608 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather is expected through early next week, with cool 
  nights and warm afternoons.

- Low rain chances will return to parts of the region Wednesday, 
  with better thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through 
  Thursday.

- A cold front is expected late in the week, bringing an end to 
  the unseasonably warm weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Despite today's cool, pleasant morning lows, temperatures will once 
again climb well above average into the upper 80s to low 90s this 
afternoon due to a mid-level ridge axis overhead and dry, sunny 
conditions. Tonight, increasing southerly flow will begin to 
return low-level Gulf moisture to North and Central TX. As a 
result, Sunday's morning lows should be a few degrees higher than
today. Winds will become breezy tomorrow afternoon as the 
pressure gradient over our area tightens and boundary layer mixing
brings gusty winds to the surface. Sunday's high temps will be 
similar to today given the continued influence of the ridge and 
efficient mixing. No precipitation is expected in the short term 
period. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Gulf moisture will continue to stream into Texas early next week, 
and with additional moisture aloft moving in from the Pacific on 
Monday, PW values should rise to 1.8-2 inches, indicating an 
anomalously moist environment for this time of year. Low-level 
moisture advection has a 10-20% chance of producing some isolated 
precip in the Brazos valley each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, but 
the vast majority across our area will remain dry due to a nearby 
mid-level ridge. As the ridge strengthens and moves overhead 
Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will be on an upward trend, 
reaching the low-to-mid 90s during the day and falling only into 
the 70s at night.

Ensemble guidance has maintained the mid-to-late week signal for 
rain chances across the Southern Plains as an upper-level trough 
axis is expected to progress east of the Rockies, bringing at least 
weak forcing for ascent to the region. However, uncertainty has 
increased since yesterday in the progression of the trough and its 
associated cold front. The GEFS suite, AI-GFS, and EC-AIFS 
continue to favor a more progressive trough, which almost all 
guidance backed yesterday. This solution would bring the front in 
earlier, likely on Friday, and would cause a greater drop in 
temps. About one third of LREF members, mostly ENS, have trended 
slower with the trough, delaying frontal passage until the weekend
and keeping milder post-frontal temps. The 12Z deterministic Euro
even has the front stalling in Central TX. Full frontal passage 
still appears more likely at this time, but we'll be monitoring 
for trends in the guidance over the coming days.

As a result, our confidence is higher that the front will bring
notably cooler temps to North TX compared to Central TX. 
Regardless, we are confident that high moisture content and 
sufficient instability for precipitation will be in place midweek,
particularly near the Red River, where these ingredients may
overlap with modest shear to produce a few organized 
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. At this time, the best 
rain chances appear to be Wednesday evening through Friday morning
(or the arrival of the front). Should the front be delayed or 
even stall out in Central TX, rain chances may extend into next 
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at D10 airports
with southerly winds. By midday Sunday, winds will increase in
speed to 10-15 kt with some afternoon gusts approaching 25 kt. 
Recent high-res guidance suggests an increasing potential for a 
small corridor of low stratus near 1 kft to move into Central 
Texas around daybreak tomorrow morning, and this has been 
introduced to the Waco TAF with a Tempo group.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                91  64  91  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               89  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              91  65  91  69 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            90  65  90  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              92  68  92  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             91  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           91  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              92  64  92  68 /   0   0   0  10 
Mineral Wells       91  62  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....Fenske
AVIATION...Stalley