141 
FXUS64 KFWD 101721
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather is expected through early next week, with cool 
  nights and warm afternoons.

- Low rain chances will return to parts of the region Wednesday, 
  with better thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through 
  Thursday.

- A cold front is expected late in the week, bringing an end to
  the unseasonably warm weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Despite today's cool, pleasant morning lows, temperatures will once 
again climb well above average into the upper 80s to low 90s this 
afternoon due to a mid-level ridge axis overhead and dry, sunny 
conditions. Tonight, increasing southerly flow will begin to 
return low-level Gulf moisture to North and Central TX. As a 
result, Sunday's morning lows should be a few degrees higher than
today. Winds will become breezy tomorrow afternoon as the 
pressure gradient over our area tightens and boundary layer mixing
brings gusty winds to the surface. Sunday's high temps will be 
similar to today given the continued influence of the ridge and 
efficient mixing. No precipitation is expected in the short term 
period. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The primary story through the first half of the extended forecast
period will be the continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures
while an increasingly moist southerly flow becomes established 
across the Southern Plains. A deepening western CONUS trough will 
promote lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains Sunday 
while surface high pressure remains positioned near the northern 
Gulf Coast. The tightening pressure gradient between these two 
features will strengthen southerly flow across North and Central 
Texas, with breezy conditions developing Sunday and continuing 
into early next week. This return flow will also begin 
transporting Gulf moisture northward, while increasing 
southwesterly flow aloft draws Pacific moisture across the region.
Despite the increasing moisture, downstream ridging and a general
lack of forcing for ascent should keep nearly all of the region 
dry through Tuesday. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled
out across the Brazos Valley as deeper moisture arrives early in 
the week.

The combination of anomalously strong ridging and warm advection 
will keep temperatures well above normal through the first half of
the week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s and 
lower to middle 90s Sunday through Wednesday, around 10 to 15 
degrees above normal. Increasing boundary layer moisture and 
persistent southerly winds will also result in progressively 
warmer nights, with morning lows climbing well into the 70s by
Tuesday morning. The increasing moisture will eventually push 
precipitable water values above the 90th percentile for mid-October,
but it will take the arrival of stronger forcing later in the 
week to make much use of it.

Our attention then turns to the upper trough that will advance 
out of the western CONUS and toward the Plains during the middle 
of the week. Large scale ascent will begin increasing Wednesday 
as the ridge gradually weakens and southwesterly flow strengthens 
aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may initially develop 
across western and northern portions of the region Wednesday, 
although the better opportunity for precipitation will be 
Wednesday night through Thursday as stronger forcing arrives.

There are still meaningful differences in the timing and 
amplitude of the approaching trough as well as the position of a 
frontal boundary initially located to our north. These details 
will determine exactly where the greatest instability, moisture, 
and forcing overlap. Regardless, the overall environment should 
become increasingly supportive of thunderstorms by Thursday. With 
anomalously high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall will be 
possible with the stronger storms. Increasing deep-layer shear 
could also support a few organized thunderstorms, particularly 
across parts of North Texas and near the Red River where the 
better shear and forcing may reside. Confidence remains too low at
this range to get more specific regarding any severe weather 
potential.

A cold front associated with the system should eventually sweep 
through North and Central Texas late in the week, although 
frontal timing remains uncertain. Confidence is considerably 
higher that the front will arrive than in exactly when it will do 
so. Cooler and drier air will follow, bringing an end to the
current stretch of unseasonably warm weather heading into next 
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are likely to prevail through the period at all TAF 
sites, though KACT has a low (20-30%) chance for MVFR cigs 12-16Z 
tomorrow morning. Beginning late Sunday morning, southerly winds 
should increase to 10-15 KT with occasional gusts up to 25 KT
through the afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                64  91  68  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               64  90  66  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              65  91  69  90 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            65  90  68  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              68  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             64  91  66  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              64  92  68  91 /   0   0  10   0 
Mineral Wells       62  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fenske
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...Fenske