538 
FXUS64 KFWD 101055
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
555 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather is expected through early next week, with cool 
  nights and warm afternoons.

- Low rain chances will return to parts of the region Wednesday, 
  with better thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through 
  Thursday.

- A cold front is expected late in the week, bringing an end to
  the unseasonably warm weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Warm and dry weather expected again today beneath an anomalously 
strong mid-level ridge, with 500 mb heights nearing the 90th 
percentile for this time of year. Clear skies, calm/light winds, 
and the dry airmass will promote efficient radiational cooling 
early this morning with lows in the upper 50s and 60s, followed by
another large diurnal temperature swing as highs reach the upper 
80s and lower 90s this afternoon. Surface high pressure will 
shift east through the day while lee troughing strengthens across 
the High Plains, allowing light winds to become southerly by late 
morning. Increasing southerly flow Saturday night will mark the 
beginning of a return flow regime and should keep overnight 
temperatures a few degrees warmer heading into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The primary story through the first half of the extended forecast
period will be the continuation of unseasonably warm temperatures
while an increasingly moist southerly flow becomes established 
across the Southern Plains. A deepening western CONUS trough will 
promote lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains Sunday 
while surface high pressure remains positioned near the northern 
Gulf Coast. The tightening pressure gradient between these two 
features will strengthen southerly flow across North and Central 
Texas, with breezy conditions developing Sunday and continuing 
into early next week. This return flow will also begin 
transporting Gulf moisture northward, while increasing 
southwesterly flow aloft draws Pacific moisture across the region.
Despite the increasing moisture, downstream ridging and a general
lack of forcing for ascent should keep nearly all of the region 
dry through Tuesday. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled
out across the Brazos Valley as deeper moisture arrives early in 
the week.

The combination of anomalously strong ridging and warm advection 
will keep temperatures well above normal through the first half of
the week. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 80s and 
lower to middle 90s Sunday through Wednesday, around 10 to 15 
degrees above normal. Increasing boundary layer moisture and 
persistent southerly winds will also result in progressively 
warmer nights, with morning lows climbing well into the 70s by
Tuesday morning. The increasing moisture will eventually push 
precipitable water values above the 90th percentile for mid-October,
but it will take the arrival of stronger forcing later in the 
week to make much use of it.

Our attention then turns to the upper trough that will advance 
out of the western CONUS and toward the Plains during the middle 
of the week. Large scale ascent will begin increasing Wednesday 
as the ridge gradually weakens and southwesterly flow strengthens 
aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may initially develop 
across western and northern portions of the region Wednesday, 
although the better opportunity for precipitation will be 
Wednesday night through Thursday as stronger forcing arrives.

There are still meaningful differences in the timing and 
amplitude of the approaching trough as well as the position of a 
frontal boundary initially located to our north. These details 
will determine exactly where the greatest instability, moisture, 
and forcing overlap. Regardless, the overall environment should 
become increasingly supportive of thunderstorms by Thursday. With 
anomalously high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall will be 
possible with the stronger storms. Increasing deep-layer shear 
could also support a few organized thunderstorms, particularly 
across parts of North Texas and near the Red River where the 
better shear and forcing may reside. Confidence remains too low at
this range to get more specific regarding any severe weather 
potential.

A cold front associated with the system should eventually sweep 
through North and Central Texas late in the week, although 
frontal timing remains uncertain. Confidence is considerably 
higher that the front will arrive than in exactly when it will do 
so. Cooler and drier air will follow, bringing an end to the
current stretch of unseasonably warm weather heading into next 
weekend. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

No significant aviation concerns are expected through the end of
the TAF period with VFR conditions and clear skies prevailing. 
Winds will start out calm or light and variable this morning 
before settling out of the south by 14-16Z with speeds increasing
to around 5-10 KT through the afternoon then becoming light again
this evening and overnight tonight. 

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  68  91  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               89  64  90  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              91  64  92  70 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            89  65  91  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              91  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             90  65  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           90  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              92  65  92  69 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       91  62  91  68 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12