132 
FXUS63 KFGF 100946
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
446 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record highs in some locations today. Near critial fire 
  weather conditions this afternoon parts of southeast North 
  Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- A strong cold front on Sunday. Rain chances are in the 
  forecast Sunday into Monday, with additional chances later 
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Discussion among the NWS offices in regards to fire weather
concerns in parts of Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota.
Apparently Travis at MIFC would like SPS for near critical fire
weather conditions today due to RH values less than 35 pct and
wind gusts 25 mph or higher. So SPS was done roughly Park Rapids
to Moorhead and south. In North Dakota, the state fire weather
office prefers no SPS, but instead make mention of near critical
fire weather conditions in the HWO and fire weather discussion.
That was done.   

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...Synopsis...

Troughing continues to develop across the Pacific Northwest this 
evening and overnight, along with a strengthening ridge across the 
eastern CONUS. As we head into Saturday and Sunday, this pattern 
amplifies, bringing continued strong warm air advection into the 
area tonight into Saturday. Temperatures could approach records 
across the southern Red River Valley, with afternoon highs in the 
mid to upper 80s. Further north, widespread 70s to low 80s are 
likely. An H5 trough will shift east late Saturday into Sunday 
morning, ushering a cold front into the area. Rain chances are in 
the forecast Sunday into Monday as this front traverses the region, 
which will accompany much cooler temperatures. Highs on Sunday are 
most likely to occur at midnight for areas in eastern North Dakota 
and northwest Minnesota, with temperatures falling as the day 
progresses. Locations in west central Minnesota should see another 
relatively warm day before the front pushes through heading into 
Sunday evening. 

Rain chances will increase once more heading into mid week as 
another system brings moisture into the Northern Plains and Upper 
Midwest. Ensemble spread is still somewhat large at this time, with 
a wide range of potential QPF Wednesday through Friday. There is, 
however, relatively good agreement that most of the area will see 
measurable precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Skies remaining VFR tonight with lower clouds now looking to 
hold off for BJI when previously MVFR was looking likely. LLWS 
remaining for FAR, TVF, BJI through the overnight despite the 
gusts persisting at FAR still. Uncertain as to if gusts remain 
at fargo through the night as the forecast would have had them 
dropping off around sunset yet somehow they are still ongoing. 
Otherwise the rest of the sites remain 10-15kts overnight and 
through the early afternoon will minimal gusts, maybe up to 
20kts occasionally. Overall LLWS is the biggest impact with 
occasional gusts creating problems through the early afternoon 
on Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT