National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFWD
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD
Product Timestamp: 2026-10-09 18:40 UTC
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936 FXUS64 KFWD 091840 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 140 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is expected through the upcoming weekend, with cool nights and warm afternoons. - Rain chances will return to the region by the middle of next week. - A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Warm, dry, and sunny weather will continue throughout the short-term period. Mid-level ridging and a dry airmass will keep rain chances near zero, and the calm, clear conditions should promote efficient daytime mixing and nocturnal radiational cooling. As a result, temperatures will have a relatively large diurnal swing, going from morning lows in the upper 50s and 60s to highs in the upper 80s and low 90s today and tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 ...Sunday through Tuesday... High pressure along the northern Gulf Coast in the wake of Hurricane Isaias and a developing lee cyclone in the Central High Plains will facilitate the return of low-level moisture to the area beginning Sunday. Mid-to-upper level Pacific moisture should also overspread the region early in the week, resulting in PW values well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Where exactly this axis of richest moisture sets up will depend on the strength of the mid- level ridge to our east. Despite the presence of such moisture, a general lack of forcing will limit rain chances through Tuesday aside from a shower or two in the Brazos Valley due to moisture advection. Temperatures will remain well above average during this time, with highs in the low-to-mid 90s and lows climbing into the mid-70s by Tuesday morning. ...Wednesday through Next Weekend... A more unsettled pattern begins Wednesday through next weekend as an upper-level trough moves into the Central US. Precip may occur on Wednesday ahead of the trough across the axis of higher PW values, but uncertainty remains in its placement and coverage. The better rain chances will be Wednesday night through Friday, when favorable synoptic forcing, instability, and healthy moisture coincide. High moisture and the presence of shear near the Red River on Thursday also introduce the possibility for more organized storms with pockets of heavy rainfall over this area. While individual members may disagree on frontal timing and strength, ensemble guidance overwhelmingly points to a cold front pushing through North and Central TX toward the end of the work week following the round of precip. For instance, 90% of LREF members have high temps dipping below 80 degrees at some point next weekend. Forecast temperatures may change as this event comes into view, but the front will at the least exchange our abnormally warm weather for near-average temps more becoming of fall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites. Light winds (0-6KT) generally from the east should continue through the afternoon before becoming near-calm and variable this evening and tonight. A more typical 5-10 KT southerly wind regime should resume late tomorrow morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 65 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 89 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 90 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 90 60 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 88 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 90 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 90 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 90 61 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 90 59 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Fenske AVIATION...Fenske