617 
FXUS65 KBOU 091146
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
546 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through at least Sunday.

- Mainly dry weather continues, with only isolated to scattered
  showers (15-30% coverage) and a couple weak storms over the
  mountains through Saturday. Any precipitation would be light.

- Elevated fire weather conditions as southwest breezes increase,
  especially by Saturday.

- Pattern change next week, with cooler temperatures finally
  arriving by Tuesday. Main precipitation chances hold off until
  the middle of next week, but even then much uncertainty. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1053 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The upper level ridge that dominated our weather for the last
several days will shift eastward Friday, with a light southwest
flow aloft developing across the area. That will support another 
very warm day, with record or near record temperatures once again.
The forecast maximum at Denver is 86F, which would be just a 
degree shy of the record (87F set in 1910). There will be some 
lingering mid level moisture, just enough for isolated high based 
showers over the mountains, capable of producing gusty outflow 
winds to 30-40 mph. 

Saturday will see stronger southwest flow aloft, resulting in
another unseasonably warm day and an increase in winds for the 
late morning and afternoon hours. With that comes elevated to 
locally critical fire weather conditions, but humidity increases 
across the mountains along with a slight drop in temperatures. 
The overlap of lowest humidity and breezy winds gusting to near 25
mph will be over Washington and Lincoln Counties, but even there 
conditions are marginal for potential Red Flag. With slight 
cooling aloft, we should see a couple degrees of cooling except 
the far northeast plains where downslope will support highs in the
upper 80s/near 90 yet. 

For Sunday to Monday, not a lot changes (or has changed in model
solutions) as the upper trough dives down the West Coast. Again,
almost all influence of this trough and the remnants of Hurricane
Rachel will stay well to our west. There is almost no chance of
rain for the plains during this time, with only a chance of
passing showers for the northern mountains. All the significant
precipitation will stay far to our west in the Desert Southwest
and Great Basin. Temperatures will almost certainly stay well
above normal with highs in the lower 80s for the lower elevations,
potentially cooling a bit Monday, still depending on a backdoor
cold front.  

Our main precipitation chances will have to wait until the upper 
level low ejects out of the southwest U.S. and across the Rockies.
There remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding the eventual 
track of this low, and thus who gets precipitation and when those
higher chances would occur. The latest trends seem to be favoring
locations north and east of our forecast area Tuesday night - 
Thursday. However, there are still several ensemble members that 
show a round of modest precipitation (30-40% chance of 0.5" 
liquid with the odds favoring locations near the Wyoming border).
Ensembles have also trended weaker with the trailing shortwave 
into Thursday or Friday, which means a decreasing chance (already 
small) of any snowflakes into lower elevations. We do think the 
current forecast track of the low would at least bring a few 
inches of snow to some of our northern mountains. 

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday/...
Issued at 540 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Current observations show winds are south-southwesterly at the 
moment. Winds may weaken and become variable for an hour or two this 
morning but we expect SSW/S winds to prevail into the evening hours. 
Some model guidance has hinted at the development of a cyclone north 
of the Denver metro, although this would only strengthen a SSW wind 
component. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected through 
the TAF period. 

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AA