718 
FXUS64 KFWD 091039
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
539 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Quiet weather is expected through the upcoming weekend, with
  cool nights and warm afternoons.

- Low rain chances will return to parts of the region by the 
  middle of next week.

- A cold front will likely bring cooler temperatures to the 
  region next weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Afternoon) 
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Quiet weather will continue through Saturday with a dry
atmospheric column and broad ridging aloft maintaining mostly
clear skies and rain-free conditions. Light east to northeast 
winds will persist despite temperatures remaining several degrees 
above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today 
and Saturday. The dry airmass, clear skies, and light winds will 
also favor efficient radiational cooling both this morning and 
again Saturday morning. Lows will generally fall into the upper 
50s and 60s, with the coolest readings in rural and low-lying 
areas. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Warm and dry weather will continue through the remainder of the 
weekend as the large-scale pattern begins to evolve. As troughing 
digs across the western CONUS, downstream ridging will initially 
amplify over the Southern Plains rather than immediately weaken. 
Meanwhile, surface high pressure will shift farther east while lee
troughing strengthens across the High Plains, allowing southerly 
flow to become established early in the period. Increasing 
southerly winds and low-level warm advection will support subtle 
warming through early next week, with highs generally in the upper
80s and lower 90s Sunday and Monday before more locations reach 
the lower to mid 90s Tuesday. Increasing boundary layer moisture 
and stronger overnight winds will have a more noticeable impact on
nighttime temperatures, with lows climbing into the lower to mid 
70s Monday night and beyond. 

The western trough will become increasingly influential by 
Tuesday and Wednesday as it digs into the Desert Southwest and 
begins to displace the ridge eastward. Strengthening southwesterly
flow aloft should eventually draw a plume of deeper subtropical 
moisture northeastward from Mexico and the eastern Pacific while 
persistent southerly flow continues to replenish Gulf moisture in 
the lower levels. Despite the increasing moisture, strong 
subsidence and capping beneath the ridge should keep North and 
Central Texas dry through at least Tuesday. 

Rain chances will begin to return during the middle of next week
as the western trough approaches and the ridge gradually weakens.
The first opportunities for showers and thunderstorms should favor
western North Texas Wednesday, where increasing large-scale ascent
will begin interacting with the western edge of the returning
moisture plume. Rain chances will continue into Thursday and will 
gradually expand farther east. There remains uncertainty regarding
how quickly the western trough progresses and, consequently, how 
quickly appreciable forcing can overcome the lingering influence 
of the ridge. Overall, the likelihood that there will be a 
transition toward a more unsettled pattern during the latter half 
of next week is continuing to increase. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions and light east to northeast winds generally at or 
below below 5 kts will prevail through the TAF period for all 
North and Central Texas terminals. Winds will likely go near-calm 
and variable after sunset this evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  66  89  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Waco                92  62  89  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Paris               91  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Denton              91  61  89  64 /   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            91  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              93  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             91  62  89  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           90  63  88  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Temple              91  63  90  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       90  60  90  64 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12