132 
FXUS65 KBOU 082340
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
540 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through Sunday. 

- Mainly dry weather continues, with only isolated to scattered 
showers (15-30% coverage) and a couple week storms for the mountains 
and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light.

- Elevated fire weather conditions as southwest breezes increase, 
especially by Saturday.

- Pattern change early next week, with cooler temperatures by
  Tuesday (possibly as early as Monday). Best precipitation 
  chances hold off until Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The upper level ridge holds over colorado today continuing our 
abnormaly warm pattern likely through Sunday. Showers are currently 
developing in the higher terrain. Temperatures 10-20 degrees warmer 
than average are expected across the lower elevations this weekend. 
The ridge shifts east Friday to make way for the trough heading in 
from the Pacific Northwest providing us with southwest flow aloft, 
but high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s are still expected for 
the plains. Denver will once again near the record high Friday of 87 
set back in 1910. Saturday will "cool off" slightly but well above 
average temperatures are still expected. Winds will increase on 
Friday and Saturday supporting critical fire weather conditions for 
Washington, Elbert, and Lincoln counties.

Sunday the weather pattern will finally change, but the overall 
impacts for our area will be limited. Temperatures will be in the 
upper 70s and low 80s due to slight cooling aloft and precipitation 
chances will increase for our western counties as the moisture from 
Rachel and the digging trough clash. There remains some uncertainty 
how far east the precipitation will reach, but overall model 
consensus favors the greatest chances in Utah and Western Colorado.
Tuesday night into Wednesday night the trough and low starts to push 
into our area, but deterministic and ensemble guidance still doesn't 
show significant indications of rainfall for the area. Likely due to 
the storms/moisture having to make it over the mountains before they 
can precipitate in the plains.Rainfall amounts will likely depend on 
how deep the trough will reach and the exact track. Rain and 
mountain snow showers will be possible. 

There is a lot going on from Wednesday through Friday. The upper 
level trough that was over southern California finally makes its way 
across the Central Rockies, in a weakened state. Depending on its 
track, rain and mountain snow showers will be possible on Wednesday. 
On the heels of this system, an upper level low dives south-
southwest from western Canada possibly into the Central Rockies. 
Many questions remain regarding this system yet, but even colder air 
is expected if it dives far enough south. Roughly 20 to 40 percent 
of the ensemble members show snow for the lower elevations sometime 
Wednesday through Friday. Even if precipitation missed the area, 
high temperatures are expected to be near or below normal (50s-60s) 
across northeast Colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday/...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

There are a few high based showers across the area with brief
microbursts. The chc of these affecting the airports is less
than 10% with APA maybe having a slightly better chc.  For now
have just included a prob30 at APA thru 02z with no mention at 
DIA and BJC. 

Winds have become N/NNW. A couple of boundaries are coming in 
from the NW and SE. Eventually the SE boundry may allow for a 
shift to south winds at APA and DIA between 01z and 02z. By O7Z 
they will become more SSW.

On Fri, will have VFR conditions with winds staying from the SSW
thru the aftn.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schnell/Meier
AVIATION...RPK