309 
FXUS63 KFGF 080428
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1128 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions prevail through
  at least Saturday. Rain chances increase thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...Synopsis...

For this afternoon, gusty winds and low relative humidity will
continue in eastern ND, the Red River Valley, into west-central
MN before sunset. While current observations of gusts in the
25-35 mph range juxtaposed with RH values in the 20s would
equate to critical fire weather conditions, current intel on
fine fuel status reveals that grasses are not quite cured to a
level that would promote rapid spread of fire. Thus, we continue
to not host any dedicated messaging toward fire weather impacts.

Otherwise this afternoon, increased chance for showers with 
embedded thunder near Lake of the Woods based on current trends 
in satellite and radar. Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms will
remain possible until near sunset.

This is in response to strong Pacific Jet nosing out of the
Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains offering a belt of
increased winds amid dry air mass. Tomorrow into Friday, the jet
migrates east of our area with upper ridging building over the
region. This will continue to promote dry and above average
temperatures through at least Saturday. Saturday will be
particularly warm day with high temperatures well into the 80s
in southeast ND and west-central MN. There is even some
opportunity for even higher temperatures pushing into the
upper 80s in the southern Red River Valley.

Around Sunday, flow becomes more southwesterly aloft in response
to upper troughing over the Pacific Coast, and eventually the
Intermountain West next week. This will promote increasing 
moisture into our region. Ensemble guidance generally agrees in
a stationary front lingering near our region late weekend into
next week. Exiting the upper trough will likely be at least a
couple of shortwave troughs that move through the Northern
Plains offering forcing for ascent near the stationary front.
This will promote increased chances for rain starting around
Sunday, lasting through much of next week.

Confidence is not high in details in precipitation evolution
next week however. Timing of more robust shortwave troughs
resulting in more consolidated bouts of rain remain in question.
There is even a cluster of guidance that offers the season's
first snow mid to late next week within the Northern Plains -
but again, confidence in this scenario is very low due to high
spread in ensemble guidance. Ultimately, the upcoming pattern 
next week will trend wetter with temperatures closer to seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A very low impact period continues for the next 24 hours with
winds under 10kts and skies remaining VFR. Increasing clouds do
move in but never lower than 7kft. Winds Thursday evening for
all sites will be light and variable after westerly winds during
the day give way to incoming high pressure.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT