758 
FXUS63 KFSD 072323
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and predominantly dry conditions continue through the
  rest of the work week. However, chances for rain (20-50%) are
  possible from late Thursday into Friday east of I-29.

- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions look to lead to elevated fire
  danger concerns on Saturday.

- Better rain chances (20-50%) and cooler temperatures look to
  return early next week, but confidence in details remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Quiet conditions persist across the area early this afternoon. High 
temperatures have warmed to upper 60s and 70s with mainly clear 
skies and light to marginally breezy winds. The pleasant conditions 
will persist for the rest of the afternoon so get there and enjoy 
it! Low temperatures will bottom out in the 40s to just about 50F 
overnight.

The daylight hours on Thursday will see a continuation of warm and 
quiet conditions with highs warming back to the upper 60s and 70s. 
Winds will turn to out of the south but still remain light to 
marginally breezy with gusts up to about 20 mph or so. The next 
chance for light rain looks to return to the area Thursday evening 
and night as a weak shortwave trough pushes into the area and 
strengthens low level warm air advection (WAA). The WAA will steepen 
mid level lapse rates just enough to result in minor instability on 
the order of 200-500 J/kg of CAPE. With enough elevated moisture and 
lift in place, scattered showers with an isolated storm or two is on 
the table. Chances (20-50%) for rain will persist through the night 
with the highest values residing east of I-29. Rainfall amounts are 
expected to be light at a few hundredths to up to about a tenth of 
an inch.

Friday will be another dry day across the area with high 
temperatures further warming to the upper 70s and 80s across the 
area. The warm highs will be accompanied by marginally breezy 
southerly winds. Low temperatures will also be on the warm side due 
the southerly winds, with lows only falling to the 60s. This is 
supported by the ensembles as they show an 80-100% chance for low 
temperatures to remain at and above 60F. With such warm overnight 
lows in place, they could rival record warm low temperatures. 
Something to keep an eye on going forwards.

The thermal ridge axis will push into the area aloft on Saturday, 
leading to the warmest high temperatures into the 80s. The southerly 
winds will be much stronger throughout the day with winds gusting up 
to 30-40 mph. This is supported by the european ensemble as it shows 
a 50-90% chance for gusts to exceed 30 mph. The warm conditions will 
be met with lower dew points, down to the 50s. This looks to result 
in lower humidity values down to about 30-40% across the area. The 
lowest humidity values look to reside along and west of the James 
River. Could see humidity values further over the next day or so. 
With stronger winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity in place, 
elevated fire danger looks to make a return to the area. The main 
uncertainty about this potential is fuels. Recent rainfall has kept 
grasses green so will have to see how much drier fuels get heading 
into Saturday. Slowly weakening southerly winds will keep warm 
overnight lows in place, with lows falling to the upper 50s and 60s.

A cold front looks to push through the area on Sunday, potentially 
resulting in cooler high temperatures and weaker northwesterly winds 
in its wake. However, this potential will depend on how quickly the 
front pushes through the area. Medium range guidance shows a large 
variance in how fast the front will push through the area. Will 
watch trends in the fronts progression to see if adjustments to the 
forecast is warranted. 

A potentially more active pattern may return to the Northern Plains 
for the first half of next week. Medium range guidance continues to 
show a large variance in how the upper level pattern will evolve. 
The ensembles paint a clearer picture with an incoming longwave 
trough cutting off over the southwest CONUS before ejecting 
eastwards on Wednesday into the Plains. The ensembles show a 20-50% 
chance for rainfall total to exceed a tenth of an inch, with the 
highest values coming next Wednesday. Details can still change but 
this looks to support more rain chances and cooler temperatures for 
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Similar to 
yesterday, can't rule out visibility reductions in any dust/haze 
kicked up from any nearby agricultural activity, but with 
lighter winds in place, this will remain brief and highly 
localized. 

Can't rule out a sprinkle or two along the Highway 14 corridor 
late tonight into tomorrow morning, but otherwise we are dry. 
Winds will be mainly light and variable tonight, picking up 
slightly out of the southeast Thursday afternoon around 5-10 
kts, though a bit higher to 12 kts in south-central South Dakota.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...Samet