233 
FXUS63 KFGF 072119
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
419 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions prevail through
  at least Saturday. Rain chances increase thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...Synopsis...

For this afternoon, gusty winds and low relative humidity will
continue in eastern ND, the Red River Valley, into west-central
MN before sunset. While current observations of gusts in the
25-35 mph range juxtaposed with RH values in the 20s would
equate to critical fire weather conditions, current intel on
fine fuel status reveals that grasses are not quite cured to a
level that would promote rapid spread of fire. Thus, we continue
to not host any dedicated messaging toward fire weather impacts.

Otherwise this afternoon, increased chance for showers with 
embedded thunder near Lake of the Woods based on current trends 
in satellite and radar. Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms will
remain possible until near sunset.

This is in response to strong Pacific Jet nosing out of the
Canadian Rockies into the Northern Plains offering a belt of
increased winds amid dry air mass. Tomorrow into Friday, the jet
migrates east of our area with upper ridging building over the
region. This will continue to promote dry and above average
temperatures through at least Saturday. Saturday will be
particularly warm day with high temperatures well into the 80s
in southeast ND and west-central MN. There is even some
opportunity for even higher temperatures pushing into the
upper 80s in the southern Red River Valley.

Around Sunday, flow becomes more southwesterly aloft in response
to upper troughing over the Pacific Coast, and eventually the
Intermountain West next week. This will promote increasing 
moisture into our region. Ensemble guidance generally agrees in
a stationary front lingering near our region late weekend into
next week. Exiting the upper trough will likely be at least a
couple of shortwave troughs that move through the Northern
Plains offering forcing for ascent near the stationary front.
This will promote increased chances for rain starting around
Sunday, lasting through much of next week.

Confidence is not high in details in precipitation evolution
next week however. Timing of more robust shortwave troughs
resulting in more consolidated bouts of rain remain in question.
There is even a cluster of guidance that offers the season's
first snow mid to late next week within the Northern Plains -
but again, confidence in this scenario is very low due to high
spread in ensemble guidance. Ultimately, the upcoming pattern 
next week will trend wetter with temperatures closer to seasonal
averages.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.
 
However, gusty northwest winds may impact aviation this
afternoon. Gusts in the 25-30kt range are forecast within
eastern ND and Red River Valley, including KDVL, KFAR, KGFK, and
KTVF. Low chance for intermittent gusts to 34kt, relatively best
chance at KFAR and KGFK. Included TEMPO groups to denote when
these gusts in excess of 30kt will be possible - generally
before 21Z. After 21Z, the behavior for such gusts becomes more
infrequent, but still could get an isolated gust to this
magnitude until 23Z.

Winds will gradually diminish late afternoon between 22-00Z,
with a markedly decrease closer to 00Z and becoming less than 
10kt after 00Z.

Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are forecast near Lake
of the Woods area in northwest MN this afternoon, ending around
sunset.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ