906 
FXUS63 KFGF 071913
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
213 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions prevail through
  at least Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Winds are becoming gusty as forecast, with highest winds in the
35-40 mph range observed from the Devils Lake basin, into the 
Red River Valley, and sporadically into lakes country of west- 
central MN.

Winds is forecast to hold generally at their current values
through at least mid afternoon, gradually diminishing late this
afternoon. By sunset, winds will be considerably lower, less 
than 15 mph.

Relative humidity values are also observed into the 20s percent
in the southern Red River Valley, with more widespread low 30s
elsewhere within the Red River Valley, eastern ND, and into
west-central MN.

Relatively humidity values are forecast to decrease a bit more
into mid and late afternoon, which at it current trend pushes RH
lower than previously forecast by around 5 percent. Lowest RH
values are still forecast in southeast ND/southern Red River
Valley into the low 20s percent.

This is allowing for near critical fire weather conditions, with
main limiting factor being status of fuels. Fuels are reportedly
still relatively high in green-ness and moisture, limiting the
potential for rapid spread of fires. For this reason, we
continue to omit dedicated messaging for fire weather
conditions.

Otherwise, increased chance for showers with embedded thunder
near Lake of the Woods based on current trends in satellite and
radar. Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms will remain possible
until near sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper pattern features a Pacific jet nosing into the Northern
Plains out of the Canadian Rockies. At the surface, a weak and
dry front is moving through the region this afternoon into
evening. This may allow for some sprinkles, but overall lack of
moisture and temperature change behind the front will prevent
most rain from reaching the ground.

Post frontal air mass tomorrow will be noticed mostly by an
increase in northwest winds, gusting 25-35 mph, perhaps nearing
40 mph in northwest MN during the afternoon. Also in northwest
MN, some rain showers may develop lee of Lake of the Woods 
during the afternoon. Lower RH values in southeast ND will allow
for near critical fire weather conditions, however relatively
higher moisture fuel status will negate any dedicated messaging
of fire weather concerns at this time.

Into late week, upper pattern stays rather zonal with some
guidance suggesting upper ridging into the central CONUS by next
week. This will continue to support above average temperatures
and an overall dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.
 
However, gusty northwest winds may impact aviation this
afternoon. Gusts in the 25-30kt range are forecast within
eastern ND and Red River Valley, including KDVL, KFAR, KGFK, and
KTVF. Low chance for intermittent gusts to 34kt, relatively best
chance at KFAR and KGFK. Included TEMPO groups to denote when
these gusts in excess of 30kt will be possible - generally
before 21Z. After 21Z, the behavior for such gusts becomes more
infrequent, but still could get an isolated gust to this
magnitude until 23Z.

Winds will gradually diminish late afternoon between 22-00Z,
with a markedly decrease closer to 00Z and becoming less than 
10kt after 00Z.

Isolated showers and weak thunderstorms are forecast near Lake
of the Woods area in northwest MN this afternoon, ending around
sunset.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ