413 
FXUS64 KLIX 071829
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
129 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Partly to Mostly sunny skies are forecast today and tomorrow as
  rain chances remain offshore. 

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for the western waters today
  through at least late Thursday. Tropical Storm Watch and
  Hurricane Watch are in place for central and eastern offshore
  waters respectively.

- Tropical Storm Isaias has developed in the southern gulf and is
  expected to move toward the north central gulf coast making
  landfall as a hurricane by the end of the week. Southeastern LA
  coastal areas plus Hancock County MS are under a Tropical Storm
  Watch and Harrison and Jackson MS counties are under a 
  Hurricane Watch. Additionally, southeast coastal LA and coastal 
  MS are under Storm Surge Watches. Some uncertainty remains on 
  the exact track and strength, but potential impacts include 
  gusty winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and dangerous 
  waves/seas on the coastal waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Tropical Storm Isaias is the headline. But, we have until Friday
morning ot afternoon before it brings any weather impacts to the
area. Until that time we are expecting very pleasant conditions,
clear skies and warm temps.

Now, with respect to Isaias, we are following the NHC discussions
and forecasts very closely. Generally speaking, the greater
impacts from Isaias will be to the east of center. However, there
will be at least minor impacts on the northern and western
peripheries as the system approaches. Current forecasting calls
for gusty and possibly tropical storm force winds winds over 
Plaquemines, St. Bernard and eastern Orleans Parishes and Hancock 
County. These areas are under Tropical Storm Watch. Higher winds,
a small chance of up to Hurricane force gusts at the coast of
Harrison and Jackson counties could occur. These areas are under a
Hurricane Watch. The Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches run
through Saturday evening. Also, all of these immediate coastal 
areas are under a Storm Surge Watch until Friday morning.

Note that the forecast evolution has edged the center track of 
the system a touch to the east with each update. The further east
the storm tracks, the lesser the impacts will be to our area.

Once the system makes landfall it moves quickly out of our area to
the north taking us into the long term.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Passage of Isaias will leave us under a ridge of high 
pressure and accompanying dry air. We will see clear skies and 
temperatures ranging from overnight lows of upper 60s to low 70s 
ranging to daytime highs around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions currently at all terminals and will remain through 
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Strong high pressure across much of the Plains will keep 
northeasterly winds over the coastal waters. Meanwhile, the winds 
aloft will be from the southwest keeping an overrunning pattern that 
will bring scattered showers across the Gulf waters through 
Thursday. 

Marine conditions will slowly worsen through the remainder of the 
week. Depending on the eventual track and strength of Tropical Storm 
Isaias, winds across the open waters are expected to rise to 
tropical storm or hurricane force driving heavy, dangerous seas.
The winds shift from easterly to northerly and northwesterly 
Friday into Saturday before easing.

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ070-076-078-091. 

     Storm Surge Watch for LAZ070-076-078-091. 

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ532-535-536-554-557-575-577. 

     Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ534-543-553-572. 

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ541-551-570.

MS...Hurricane Watch for MSZ084-085-087-088. 

     Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ086. 

     Storm Surge Watch for MSZ086>088. 

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ535-536-554-557-575-577. 

     Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ543-553-572. 

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ551-570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS