820 
FXUS63 KGLD 071744
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1144 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions are forecast with high temperatures in
  the 80s. 

- Could see patchy fog in the Southwestern portions of the CWA. 

- Increased fire danger is forecast Friday and Saturday,
  especially in for counties along the Colorado border. Relative
  humidity may drop into the teens with gusts around 30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current observations show the upper level ridge remaining near the 
Western Rockies, maintaining northwest flow aloft and keeping the 
main jet stream to the north near the US/Canada border. At the 
surface, clear skies and light, variable winds are expected through 
the early morning hours. 

Clear skies, warm, and dry conditions will likely continue through 
Thursday night. Our overall pattern changes little during this time, 
though another upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes early 
Thursday morning, reinforcing the northwesterly flow for us. A 
surface high will likely build in from Colorado today as yesturday's 
front stalls out, keeping highs in the 80s across much of the Tri-
State area with light winds around 5-10 mph. Nighttime lows will 
likely remain in the 50s. 

Late tonight, patchy fog may develop across southwestern portions of 
the County Warning Area (CWA). Light easterly upslope flow combined 
with clear skies and small temperature and dew point differences (1-
5 degrees) could favor localized fog formation, reducing 
visibilities to 6-8 miles until around sunrise on Thursday. On 
Thursday, winds pick up slightly to 10-15 mph with gusts around 25 
mph west of Kansas Highway 27. Fire weather concerns remain low (5-
10%), as relative humidity values of 20-25% stay above critical 
thresholds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Friday and Saturday, the area is forecast to be stuck in the middle 
of multiple features with an upper trough over the Western United 
States and Northern Plains, while a hurricane pushes into the Ohio 
River Valley. In spite of all these features in the United States, 
this should leave the area in a relatively stagnant pattern with a 
surface low hanging around the High and Northern Plains that extends 
into the area. This should keep southerly low level flow and dry air 
place over the area, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid 80s 
to lower 90s. The dry air and warm temperatures are forecast to have 
relatively humidity lower into the teens and 20s during the 
afternoon, with the lowest values for counties along the Colorado 
border. With the pressure gradient over the area keeping winds 
around 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph, there is increasing 
concern for at least a few hours of critical fire weather 
conditions. But with ensemble spread charts showing most of the 
features could either shift or become more broad, don't have the 
confidence to issue any products yet as conditions could still 
change a bit. One of the things I am more confident in is the lack 
of precipitation. While we have features near/over the area, the air 
will likely be too dry for anything to form, keeping our precip 
chances under 5%.

Sunday and early next week remain a mess with two northern upper 
troughs possible along the the upper low over the Western United 
States potentially moving near the area. For now, it is likely that 
we will have westerly/southwesterly flow with all these features 
that should bring some mid to high level moisture into the area. The 
increased cloud cover and influence of the upper troughs trying to 
push the surface low east and allow for cold air advection should 
lead to cooler temperatures for that start of the week. For now, the 
forecast is that temperatures lower each day by about 5 degrees with 
highs forecast to be in the mid 60s be mid-week. With the 
uncertainty in how strong each feature will be and when it will 
advance, some ensemble solutions suggest much colder air would be 
possible. Even so, the chance for freezing temperatures is only 
around 5-10%. This has also severely lower the snow chances hinted 
at by prior runs in guidance. What hasn't lowered is the chance for 
precipitation with the influx of mid and upper level moisture. While 
unlikely to be widespread or lead to decent accumulations due to dry 
near surface air, Mon-Wed has a 30-50% chance of rain each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected for the
prevailing TAF period. Winds will generally be out of the east-
northeast this afternoon at 7-11 kt, then decreasing to 7 kt or
less and becoming more south-southeast by Thu morning (12Z). 

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Holdren
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...Pietrycha