182 
FXUS63 KFSD 071725
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and predominantly dry conditions continue through most of
  the work week. However, some smaller rain chances (30%) will
  be possible from late Thursday into Friday mainly across
  northwestern IA.

- Drier and breezy conditions over the weekend could lead to
  some locally elevated fire concerns with more widespread
  concern possible by Saturday.

- Better rain chances (20-40%) and cooler temperatures look to 
  return early next week, but confidence in details remains low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Taking a look across the area, the mostly clear conditions continue 
this morning with as a few cirrus streaks moving in overhead. We're 
still on track for a few patchy areas of valley fog with the surface 
inversion in place. However, given the large dew point depressions; 
thinking coverage will be more isolated vs widespread. Either way, 
any lingering fog should erode just after daybreak as diurnal 
heating returns. Otherwise, expect another bright and beautiful day 
as temperatures peak in the low to upper 70s as a surface high moves 
in overhead. 

Didn't make much changes to the temperatures this time around as it 
seems the NBM is starting to catch up. However, decided to introduce 
some low confidence POPs (20% or less) for portions of southwestern 
MN late tonight as mid-level frontal forcing strengthens with a very 
weak wave. Nonetheless, with a drier sub-cloud layer according to 
soundings; thinking this will be more virga to sprinkles than light 
showers. Lastly, confidence continues to grow in accumulating 
precipitation returning from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning 
as a lifting warm front interacts with a strengthening LLJ. While 
most of this activity will be situated across northwestern IA, any 
resulting accumulations should be light.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Warm and sunny weather will continue through the rest of 
this afternoon and early evening, making for a great time for 
outdoor activities! Quiet weather continues tonight with lows 
dropping to the upper 40s to lower 50s. Can't rule out some patchy 
fog mainly in river valleys and other low-lying areas early 
Wednesday morning, but chances of development are low (around 20%) 
at time. Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place heading into the 
day on Wednesday, and this will send some high clouds into the area. 
This will act to lower high temperatures than compared to today on 
Wednesday, but still above average in the lower to middle 70s. If 
clouds are a bit thicker and move in faster than expected, then
high temperatures may be a bit cooler ranging from the upper 
60s to lower 70s. On the flip side, a slower arrival and/or 
thinner clouds could result in slightly warmer temperatures than
currently forecast.
 
Winds look to increase slightly tomorrow, gusting to 25 mph along 
the Highway 14 corridor. Could have a few gusts pushing towards 30 
mph in those locations during the afternoon hours. High pressure 
looks to settle into the region Wednesday night and will settle down 
the winds to very light to calm. Cloud cover associated with the 
northwesterly flow will likely prevent maximum cooling from being 
realized, but should still be a bit cooler (though still above 
average) night than compared to tonight. Lows by sunrise Thursday 
will be in the middle to upper 40s. 

High pressure slides eastward on Thursday, allowing for the 
return of southeasterly flow to the area. The low levels still 
look to be pretty dry during the day, but the southerly flow 
will eventually bring in enough moisture by Thursday night to 
allow for some showers to develop. The best chances (15-25%) 
will be south of Highway-18. Amounts are expected to remain 
light, only a couple hundredths since much if not all of the 
saturation will be occurring below the DGZ. Only way I can see 
an area picking up to a tenth or two will be if any of the 
showers can tap into some elevated instability and become a weak
thunderstorm. Chances for this are less than 15%. Any showers 
should push east of the area by the mid morning hours on Friday,
leading to an overall sunny day. With the continued southerly 
flow in place, look for temperatures to warm well above average 
once again into the middle to upper 70s, with a few low 80s in 
south-central South Dakota. 

Very warm weather will continue into the weekend, though a breakdown 
in this warm and dry pattern may start into early next week. First, 
Saturday looks to be a warm and breezy day with highs likely in the 
80s for most areas. In terms of wind gusts, the 06.13Z NBM has a 30-
60% chance of wind gusts over 45 mph, while the 06.12Z European 
ensemble has a less than 10% of this occurring. So a fairly 
large spread in what the max wind gusts will be, but will also 
have to watch this day for potentially some fire weather 
concerns. However, do think we'll need to see some serious 
drying of fuels and browning of grasses before this becomes a 
threat. Trends will be monitored. 

Meanwhile out west, a trough will be digging into the Pacific 
Northwest and become the main focus for rain chances into next 
week as it sends some upper waves our way. Deterministic 
guidance diverges significantly regarding when we see the best 
rain chances, and as such the NBM maintains broad 15-35% PoPs 
starting late Sunday night into the day on Tuesday. The LREF is 
a little bit higher (in the 20-40% range) during that time, 
which makes sense given that there will probably be a storm 
system sometime next week with the active pattern aloft, it's 
just a matter of when we'll see see it move through. In terms of
amounts, the LREF shows the highest 24-hour rainfall totals 
between Monday morning and Tuesday morning, with a 15-25% chance
of totals greater than a quarter of an inch. The return of rain
chances and the clouds associated with it will result in 
temperatures much closer to average on Monday and especially by 
Tuesday, though exact temperatures will continue to be refined 
as the track and timing of the rain next week becomes more 
apparent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Light 
northerly/northwest winds will persist through the rest of the 
afternoon hours before going light and variable this evening. Winds 
will remain light and variable through the night while upper level 
cirrus moves in aloft. Winds will pick up out of the southeast 
tomorrow morning to end the period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...Samet
AVIATION...Meyers