National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBOU
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBOU
Product Timestamp: 2026-10-07 04:49 UTC
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789 FXUS65 KBOU 070449 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1049 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm through at least Saturday. - Only isolated to scattered showers (15-30% coverage) for the mountains and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light. - Pattern change late this weekend and early next week. Still considerable uncertainty as to when and how much temperatures will cool, and what chance of precipitation we'll see. && .DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026 The upper level ridge that brought record/near record temperatures to the forecast area the last two days will remain over the region through Thursday. This means a continuation of unseasonably warm weather, although the potential of record temperatures will drop slightly Wednesday as we see just a slight push of easterly winds across the plains. That will result in just a couple degrees of cooling, with lower to mid 80s common for highs across the plains both Wednesday and Thursday. Given a little moisture hanging under the ridge, expect a similar convective scenario to Tuesday with isolated to scattered light showers/isolated storms mainly over the high country. On Friday, we'll start to get into west/southwest flow aloft as the ridge starts to break down as an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This will support more downslope flow and a continuation of very warm temperatures. In fact, this could get us close (30-40% chance) of tying another record high on either Thursday or Friday (Records are 85F and 87F, respectively). With the increasing downslope, any isolated showers or storms would be confined to the mountains. There is excellent agreement that the warmth will persist for one more day Saturday, before a pattern shift occurs. By Sunday, the PNW trough is still forecast to drop southward across California, picking up remnants of Hurricane Rachel. The trough has trended deeper and farther west, which means the bulk of the precipitation (some heavy) will once again end up falling over the Desert Southwest into Utah and perhaps western Colorado. For the most part, our forecast area will likely remain sheltered from any significant precipitation. There are only a couple outliers with heavier rain and mountain snow for us, and this might be because of the handling of yet the next tropical storm which is still in the very early stages of expected development. Thus, the best chance of precipitation is now likely to hold off until Wednesday or Thursday but a lot of uncertainty exists there. The uncertainty surrounding temperatures also holds true, with some ensemble members having a backdoor cool front reaching us Sunday or more likely Monday. But given the farther west location of the upper trough, it seems like the main push of cooler air would likely get delayed. We'll stick near the ensemble averages at this point but should be worth noting that Monday's highs could range anywhere from the mid 40s to the mid 80s, with 25-75th percentiles showing 60s-70s. A lot of spread but more confidence of cooling to autum-like temperatures toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday/... Issued at 520 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds have been light and VRB for most of this afternoon. There is a very low, but non-zero chance of gusty winds due to virga showers for the next few hours. Winds will turn to a modified drainage (more westerly than usual) tonight and stay light- under 8 kts- at KDEN and KAPA. KBJC will stay light and northwesterly overnight. By tomorrow late morning and into the afternoon, winds will turn to the north/northeast and slowly turn clockwise through the afternoon before becoming drainage in the evening. There is a ~10-20% chance of a virga shower causing gusty and erratic outflow winds at all three sites tomorrow afternoon. Only a few to sct mid- and high-level clouds are expected through the period. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...MV