250 
FXUS64 KTSA 062320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

 - Cool morning lows, warm afternoon highs prevail through the 
   week.

 - Rain is not expected through the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

After a crisp start across the region temperatures have quickly
climbed into the 70s areawide. Temps will continue to rise and top
out in the mid 80s this afternoon under sunny skies with light
winds as surface ridging remains over the region. Winds could come
up a bit out of the south by this afternoon across northeast 
Oklahoma as the surface ridge begins to slide east into the Mid 
Mississippi Valley and Mid Atlantic Regions. Clear skies and 
light winds will again lead to another cool night generally in the
low to mid 50s. A few locations could slip down into the upper 
40s again, but overall temperatures should trend a couple degrees 
warmer than this morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Generally low impact weather is expected through the end of the
week and this weekend across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Surface ridging remains nearby the local region as mid
level high pressure builds back eastward and flattens out over
much of the southern states through the middle part of the week.
The result will be near persistent, dry conditions, with a slight
warming trend each day.

By the end of the week and into the weekend, guidance remains
consistent in lifting a tropical low northward out of the Gulf,
tracking up the Mississippi Valley before lifting northeastward
through the Ohio Valley. This track would keep much in the way of
impactful weather and rain chances east of the area, though a few
showers could creep into western Arkansas Saturday night into
Sunday morning. The primary response felt across our forecast area
will be an increase in southerly to southeasterly winds in 
response to the tightening gradient as the low lifts northward 
across eastern Arkansas. Fire weather concerns could increase 
during this timeframe with the gustier surface winds and continued
drought conditions across the region. A storm system and 
associated cold front could approach the region toward the middle 
part of next week, maintaining gusty winds each afternoon ahead of
the front. Rain chances begin to increase just outside the range 
of this forecast package as the front finally moves through the 
forecast area the latter half of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Mostly clear to a few passing high clouds along with variable to
light southerly winds are forecast through the TAF period for the
CWA. VFR conditions are currently forecast, though there remains
an isolated potential for a brief reduction in visibility for far
northwest Arkansas late tonight/early Wednesday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  89  61  89 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   56  87  58  90 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC   56  86  57  89 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   58  90  58  88 /   0  10   0   0 
FYV   53  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   56  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   56  86  58  88 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   57  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   56  86  58  89 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20