692 
FXUS62 KGSP 062320
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
720 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and quiet through at least Friday. Above normal temperatures
return for the rest of the workweek.
2. Rain chances return to the region over the weekend, potentially
lingering into early next week. Confidence on timing and details
remains low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry and quiet through at least Friday. Above normal
temperatures return for the rest of the workweek.

Dry sfc high pressure will persist across much of the eastern
CONUS thru Friday under broad upper-level troughing. The air mass
in place will warm thru the end of the workweek, with temps about
5-10 deg above normal. The warmest day of the week is expected to
be Thursday, with highs about 10 deg above normal. A dry cold front
slips in from the north early Friday, which may keep Friday's max
temps a few deg cooler.


Key message 2: Rain chances return to the region over the weekend,
potentially lingering into early next week. Confidence on timing
and details remains low at this time.

The main feature to potentially impact the weather across the
forecast area this weekend will be a tropical system, which will
likely be a tropical depression later this aftn. The vast majority
of model guidance, including ensembles, has the system become at
least a Tropical Storm as it gets organized in the western Gulf, and
have narrowed on the forecast track somewhere along the central Gulf
Coast later this week. However, there is still a lot of spread on
the speed of the storm, and hence, the timing of heaviest rainfall
across the CWFA. There is still a lot of disagreement on the QPF
among the deterministic models. The 12z Canadian is further west
with the storm track and shows only about 0.5-1.5" of QPF, while
the 12z ECMWF is coming in with widespread 2-3" with locally 4-6"
along the Blue Ridge escarpment. Most of this rainfall is forecast
to occur Saturday night thru Sunday, but again, timing is still
low-confidence, until the tropical system gets more organized and
initialized by the later model runs.

The NBM has bumped up PoPs into the categorical range for
Sunday, with QPF in the middle of the model spread (mainly 1-3",
locally 3-4" along the Escarpment and less than 1" along the TN
border). This makes sense given the tropical moisture will be
strongly forced over a hybrid cold-air damming wedge and 30-40+
kt of SELY upslope flow. If this forecast holds, this should be
mainly a beneficial rain event, but locally excessive rainfall
will be possible. Temps will trend cooler within the wedge, with
highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

The tropical system should become extra-tropical as it tracks thru
the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley late Sunday thru Monday. This
should result in drier air working in from the SW and tapering off
rain chances. The latest NBM has trended lower for Monday's PoPs,
but this remains low-confidence, given the dependence on the storm
track. Dry weather with temps returning to above normal is expected
by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail across all terminals 
through the TAF period. FEW/SCT250 clouds move out overnight and 
should give way to SKC/FEW250 into Wednesday. Winds remain E/NE and 
light before becoming VRB/calm overnight. Should remain very light 
and VRB on Wednesday for most sites. Possible BR and LIFR cigs at 
KAVL. So another TEMPO from 10z-13z. No other vsby/cig issues.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through the end of the week.
Mountain valley fog and low stratus are possible each night. 
Restrictions may return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

ARK/CP