808 
FXUS65 KBOU 061932
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
132 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm through at least Saturday.

- Only isolated to scattered showers (15-30% coverage) for the 
  mountains and higher terrain. Any precipitation would be light. 

- Pattern change late this weekend and early next week, but
  considerable uncertainty as to when and how much temperatures
  will cool and what chance of precipitation we'll see. 

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Another warm day in the books for October as current surface
observations show widespread temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s.
With the increased cloud cover today, we should stay slightly
cooler compared to yesterday. However, near-record temperatures
are still expected this afternoon for portions of the plains
(record temperature at DIA is 87, with forecast high temperature
of 86 today). Isolated light showers and possibly a few rumbles of
thunder still look on track this afternoon and evening for the
mountains and high valleys, with current radar imagery already
showing pop-up convection near South Park. Precipitation amounts
will be light with anything that does develop. While unlikely (~10%
chance or less) CAMs do indicate a few virga showers spilling 
onto the I-25 Corridor later this evening, with gusty outflow 
winds of 25-35 mph possible. 

Warm and mostly dry conditions look to continue through the end of
the week and into the weekend, as an upper level ridge resides 
over the southwestern U.S. Highs should be about 10-15 dg F above 
normal. For Wednesday and Thursday, 700-mb temperatures will 
"cool" slightly, which will help keep temperatures in the low 80s 
across the plains. Like today, another round of isolated shower 
activity is possible, but should mostly be confined to the higher 
terrain. With flow aloft turning more southwesterly, precipitation
chances decrease Friday and Saturday. 

A pattern change is becoming more likely by Sunday/Monday, as a
system from the Pacific northwest dips south along California
early next week before eventually ejecting east by mid-to-late
next week. However, there is still a lot of model variability in
terms of evolution of the system and moisture availability. 
Cooler temperatures should arrive by Sunday or Monday for our 
forecast area behind a cold front. However, it is uncertain
exactly when and how cool we will get, as ensemble spread for max
T ranges from high 50s to low 80s both days. Regardless, we can
expect cooler conditions. In terms of precipitation, guidance does
try to pull in moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rachel. If
the moisture can travel up to our region, shower activity will
return to the mountains. Unfortunately for the plains, it doesn't
look like any meaningful precipitation could occur until mid-to- 
late next week. 


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and variable 
winds expected for at least the next hour as winds start to turn 
northerly. Winds should settle in an east/northeast pattern by 
around 20/21Z and remain predominantly easterly through the evening 
hours. While precipitation is not expected over the Denver metro 
area and rain chances remain at about 30% for the mountains, should 
a high-based shower hold together off the higher terrain, we could 
see an outflow boundary make its way across the TAF sites. By around 
05Z, winds should settle into drainage for the overnight hours, with 
a stronger westerly component. Another period of light and variable 
winds is expected in the morning, around 14-16Z, before winds turn 
northerly and then east/northeasterly for the afternoon.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...AGS