027 
FXUS61 KCTP 061343
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
943 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No sig changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Today will be the coolest day this week, with patchy frost 
possible again tonight.

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week,
followed by a chance of rain on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Tuesday will be the coolest day this week, with 
patchy frost possible again Tuesday night.

Light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints have resulted in
effective radiational cooling over west central PA, with temps
as low as the upper 20s and low 30s this morning. Temperatures
will moderate during the day under abundant sunshine. Undercut
the NBM for dewpoints this afternoon given the dry airmass and 
effective mixing. 

High pressure will slide east through the day into tonight, 
with winds shifting around to the SW across west central PA. 
This should make frost less likely tonight in the places that 
were coldest this morning. However, frost will be possible to 
the east where winds will be calm, closer to the center of the 
high.

-------------------------------------------------------------
 
KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall 
weather this week, followed by a chance of rain on Sunday.

High confidence in a prolonged stretch of dry and seasonable 
Fall wx this week with cool nights and refreshing afternoons 
with low humidity. This will give the area a much needed chance 
to dry out from the wet summer and early fall so far.

The next chance of rain is on Sunday, as moisture moves up from
the Gulf Coast states. However, there is still ample uncertainty
regarding how much of that moisture makes it into our region.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will keep clear skies and VFR conditions over 
the region into Wed. Windx will be on the light side as well.

A weak cold front will move southeast across central PA later
Thursday into Friday, but moisture is very limited. Not much 
chance of any showers or fog. Thus VFR conditions will be the 
largely predominant flight category right through Saturday.

That being said, potential restrictions for a 2-3 hour period 
(09-12Z) due to patchy valley fog could occur at KBFD, KUNV and
KIPT mainly Friday and Saturday morning as high pressure at the
sfc and aloft becomes located over PA.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat. VFR conditions expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Martin
AVIATION...Martin