326 
FXUS63 KFGF 060433
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1133 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
  through at least Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

...Synopsis...

A tranquil stretch of October weather is upon us the next few 
days. Responsible for the overall quiet weather is our regions 
placement in a dry, northwesterly flow pattern aloft. The only 
weather today to note is a warm front that is lifting northward.
The area of strongest WAA can be approximated on satellite by 
the shield of developing cloud cover over southeastern ND into 
west central MN. This lift should be enough to generate a couple
of showers later this afternoon and evening as it tracks 
through west central MN. There is meager instability (MUCAPE of 
up to 500 J/Kg), which may produce a stray strike or two of 
lightning with the strongest showers. However, dry air near the 
surface will limit most locations from meaningful rainfall. 

Midweek, a wave passes to our north and east. While no 
precipitation is forecasted in this FA, it will bring a period 
of cooler but still above average temperatures (more upper 60s 
and low 70s to end the week versus widespread 70s on 
Monday/Tuesday). 

Thereafter, upper flow become more amplified, with troughing 
over the western CONUS, and ridging downstream over the 
central/eastern US. This will set our region up into some 
variation of a southwest/split flow by the very end of the 
weekend into the first part of next week. While model guidance 
is picking up on this more active pattern, there are quite a few
disagreements in the details, ranging from how many waves are 
ejected into the region, the timing of each, and their strength.
While this uncertainty keeps precipitation specifics murky, 
there is agreement within model guidance that after a brief 
warmup with widespread 70s on Saturday, we will cool down 
substantially by next Monday. High temperatures by Monday are 
forecasted to be on either side of 50 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Minimal change from the last discussion with some high clouds
moving in currently but well above 25kft with VFR skies
prevailing through the period. Winds have mostly dropped for 
the night but a few areas still holding onto winds around 10kts 
east central Red River Valley to the east of Fargo. Overall 
staying sub 10kts overnight with winds increasing from the NW 
through the mid morning with speeds of 10-15kts through the day 
and gusts as high as 20kts for GFK and DVL in the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...TT