748 
FXUS63 KBIS 052011
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
311 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions far southwest this 
  afternoon.

- Very warm temperatures across the southwest this afternoon
  with highs into the mid 80s. Not as warm elsewhere, but still 
  mild.
  
- Cooler, but still seasonable to mild Tuesday through Saturday
  with highs ranging from the 60s northeast to the 70s
  southwest.

- Possibly much cooler Sunday and into early next week with low
  to medium chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Pretty quiet forecast this week and into the early portion of
the weekend. Still a lot of uncertainty late in the forecast
period.

Currently, surface low pressure over Saskatchewan with a warm
front extending southward through far western ND. The warm front
will push east through central ND by this evening. Over western
ND this afternoon westerly winds behind the cold front, combined
with continued dry air behind the weak cold front, will result 
in near critical fire weather conditions in far southwest ND for
a couple hours late this afternoon. This area is where winds 
are forecast to be strongest with the warmest temperatures. 
Winds are expected to diminish quickly early this evening. Lows 
tonight are expected to range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. 

Tuesday will be noticeably cooler in the southwest, but much of
central ND will see temperatures similar to today. Highs Tuesday
will range from the upper 60s to upper 70s. There may be another
short period of near critical fire weather conditions in the far
southwest once again as we mix out in the mid to late afternoon.
At this time will hold off on adding the wording to the Fire 
Weather Forecast as the duration is short and the areal extent 
is even less than today (portions of Bowman County). Will let 
the overnight shift take another look with a new model run.

As a northwest upper flow pattern becomes more established
through mid-week, we see a very gradual downward trend in
forecast high temperatures Tuesday through Thursday with 
daytime highs on Thursday in the 60s statewide. A stray jet
induced sprinkle or shower is not out of the question, but will
maintain a dry forecast.

Friday and Saturday looks to be a transition period from an
northwest upper flow to a southwest upper flow. Surface low
pressure associated with a leading shortwave tracking from the
eastern Pacific to British Columbia Canada tracks into the
Northern Plains region by the Friday/Saturday timeframe. This
should allow for at least a little warmer temperatures into
Saturday, although ensemble temperature spreads for 
Friday/Saturday have increased since yesterday so confidence is 
low for a significant warm-up. There does look to be a cooldown
on Sunday with at least some low to moderate (20-40%)
precipitation chances as the aforementioned northern stream
shortwave and attendant surface low push through the forecast
area.

The following wave moving onshore results in a closed upper low
over the Pacific Northwest by later in the day Saturday. There 
appears to be even more uncertainty in how this feature evolves 
into early next week, when compared to yesterday. It does appear
that it will take longer for the closed low to eventually 
emerge in the Plains, and although there is still a colder 
solution, the trend was toward a not so cold solution. There 
remains quite large spread in the NBM ensemble temperatures 
Sunday and into next week. The deterministic models show pretty 
good agreement in a closed upper low dropping south into the 
Great Basin region, but with increasing uncertainty as to when 
and where they emerge onto the Plains. At this time will
maintain NBM temperatures and PoPs through the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. South to
southeast surface flow across western and central ND to begin
the TAF period, with breezy south winds 15 to 25 mph over
eastern portions of central ND. Winds in the west have
diminished and are forecast to shift westerly this afternoon
behind a weak cold front. Winds will shift westerly across the
remainder of the forecast area from west to east this afternoon
into this evening, then remain westerly 12kts or less through
Tuesday morning. Only a few mid and high level clouds expected
through the TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH